Friday, January 13, 2012
PITCHf/x Primer
In 2006, Sportvision implemented their first camera system for baseball analysis, PITCHf/x. Two cameras are set up in every stadium to record speed, movement, and location of every pitch. While there are occasional flaws, it has become an extremely reliable source of evaluating a pitcher's "stuff." The common values listed under PITCHf/x pages are pitch type percentage, average velocity, horizontal movement, and vertical movement. The first two are self-explanatory for the most part, so I'll explain how the movement works.
Recruitment
Looking for a competitive and deep league? Look no further! We’re looking 12 owners with experience and expertise in fantasy baseball as well as salary dynasty leagues. It is highly recommended you have use of AIM or YIM for trading and communication purposes, Facebooks are also acceptable. Our league will be run through ESPN and most if not all league business will be run on our forum: http://redsoxclubhouse.proboards.com/index.cgi . Please browse through our constitution for a more in-depth look into how the league’s setting are and will work. If you are interested, send me an email at AJP13237@yahoo.com or look me up on AIM at AJP13237. Thank you for your time, have a great day!
AJP13237
AJP13237
New Writers on Board.
Everyone, I'd like to give a warm welcome to two new writers. One of them is LeeTro. He has a very good sabermetric background and is an excellent addition to the blog. He will be bringing pitch f/x among many other things with him? I myself don't understand pitch f/x so that'll be something even I can enjoy. It's a pleasure to have him joining me. We are also welcoming AJP13237 who will be posting every now and than. AJ is also a fangraphs fan with sabermetric knowledge. Again, we'd like to welcome both to the blog!
Sunday, January 8, 2012
Kevin Brown, not Jack Morris Should be Inducted to the Hall
Tomorrow, we will be finding out which former baseball players are set to be enshrined into one of the most prestigious brotherhoods, the Baseball Hall of Fame. Lately there has been chatter throughout the baseball world regarding Jack Morris and his chances of being elected. Some are saying he should be, while others are saying he shouldn't. I believe that he shouldn't, there's at least one pitcher who deserves to be elected ahead of him. His name is Kevin Brown.
Throughout his career Brown pitched with a number of teams. His best was the '98 season when he was with the Padres, he posted a 9.3 WAR. Let's take a look at these two pitchers and see how they stack up side by side.
[googleapps domain="docs" dir="spreadsheet/pub" query="hl=en_US&hl=en_US&key=0Ag3vWE1mScVDdFFfTWJrazVTQXA3cHAxNmJSMEJWZXc&output=html&widget=true" width="500" height="300" /]
The first thing I notice is that throughout their careers Brown was much better at limiting walks, he walked roughly 2% less batters than Morris did during his career. He also struck out more batters, while doing a good job at attacking the strikezone Brown managed to limit the amount of homers he gave up. He gave almost half of the amount of home runs that Morris gave up. If we take a look at FIP- we can see that Brown was clearly the better pitcher. Add the fact that he pitched during the time where steroids was its' peak and that makes it all the more impressive.
Brown was one of the best pitchers in the league during his tenure as a major league pitcher. Only five other pitchers had totaled more WAR during that span than he did. Those pitchers are as follow: Roger Clemens (133.9), Greg Maddux (110.6), Randy Johnson (105.4), Pedro Martinez (85.4) and Curt Schilling (77.8). Those five pitchers ahead of Brown are regarded as some of the greatest of all-time, combine that with the time that Brown pitched in and that makes his 77.2 WAR all the more impressive.
During Morris' tenure he was the fourth best pitcher according to WAR. The three pitchers ahead of him were Nolan Ryan (78.4 WAR), Roger Clemens (75.7) and Bert Blyleven (59.9). Morris comes in at 56.6 WAR but you can clearly see the pitchers weren't as good compared to when Brown pitched.
One other thing going for Brown is that he had the much better peak. From 1992 to 1998 Brown amassed 42.4 WAR. That averages out to 6.1 WAR per season. During that span he went over 6 WAR three times and reached over 9 WAR once. From 1998-2000 Brown was just as dominant, posting 13 WAR during that span. During that period there were only two pitchers that were better than Brown in terms of WAR. Those two were Pedro Martinez and Randy Johnson, both of whom will be hall of fame members.
Morris didn't really have a true peak during his career. From 1983 to 1988 Morris had 26.4 WAR which turns into 4.4 WAR per season. From 1989-1990 Morris only had 4.3 WAR but from 1991-1992 he had 9 WAR. One could argue that Morris amassed his WAR due to longevity. In 22 years Morris averaged 2.6 WAR per year, putting at a little above replacement level per year. Brown on the other hand averaged 4.1 WAR per season, making him two wins above replacement per year.
In terms of career WAR, Brown is at number 10 overall in terms of pitcher WAR. Keep in mind though that many pitchers don't have WAR totals. That includes every pitcher who pitched before 1974. This is according to fWAR, rWAR does have WAR totals for every pitcher but I prefer fWAR.
Lastly, Brown pitched there was speculation about him using PEDs but there is no statement proving he used or not. I for one am not sure when the rumors surrounding Brown started so I'd rather not touch on the subject.
Jack Morris was a very good pitcher but Kevin Brown was much better and deserves to be enshrined before the BBWAA even thinks about giving Jack Morris his turn.
Throughout his career Brown pitched with a number of teams. His best was the '98 season when he was with the Padres, he posted a 9.3 WAR. Let's take a look at these two pitchers and see how they stack up side by side.
[googleapps domain="docs" dir="spreadsheet/pub" query="hl=en_US&hl=en_US&key=0Ag3vWE1mScVDdFFfTWJrazVTQXA3cHAxNmJSMEJWZXc&output=html&widget=true" width="500" height="300" /]
The first thing I notice is that throughout their careers Brown was much better at limiting walks, he walked roughly 2% less batters than Morris did during his career. He also struck out more batters, while doing a good job at attacking the strikezone Brown managed to limit the amount of homers he gave up. He gave almost half of the amount of home runs that Morris gave up. If we take a look at FIP- we can see that Brown was clearly the better pitcher. Add the fact that he pitched during the time where steroids was its' peak and that makes it all the more impressive.
Brown was one of the best pitchers in the league during his tenure as a major league pitcher. Only five other pitchers had totaled more WAR during that span than he did. Those pitchers are as follow: Roger Clemens (133.9), Greg Maddux (110.6), Randy Johnson (105.4), Pedro Martinez (85.4) and Curt Schilling (77.8). Those five pitchers ahead of Brown are regarded as some of the greatest of all-time, combine that with the time that Brown pitched in and that makes his 77.2 WAR all the more impressive.
During Morris' tenure he was the fourth best pitcher according to WAR. The three pitchers ahead of him were Nolan Ryan (78.4 WAR), Roger Clemens (75.7) and Bert Blyleven (59.9). Morris comes in at 56.6 WAR but you can clearly see the pitchers weren't as good compared to when Brown pitched.
One other thing going for Brown is that he had the much better peak. From 1992 to 1998 Brown amassed 42.4 WAR. That averages out to 6.1 WAR per season. During that span he went over 6 WAR three times and reached over 9 WAR once. From 1998-2000 Brown was just as dominant, posting 13 WAR during that span. During that period there were only two pitchers that were better than Brown in terms of WAR. Those two were Pedro Martinez and Randy Johnson, both of whom will be hall of fame members.
Morris didn't really have a true peak during his career. From 1983 to 1988 Morris had 26.4 WAR which turns into 4.4 WAR per season. From 1989-1990 Morris only had 4.3 WAR but from 1991-1992 he had 9 WAR. One could argue that Morris amassed his WAR due to longevity. In 22 years Morris averaged 2.6 WAR per year, putting at a little above replacement level per year. Brown on the other hand averaged 4.1 WAR per season, making him two wins above replacement per year.
In terms of career WAR, Brown is at number 10 overall in terms of pitcher WAR. Keep in mind though that many pitchers don't have WAR totals. That includes every pitcher who pitched before 1974. This is according to fWAR, rWAR does have WAR totals for every pitcher but I prefer fWAR.
Lastly, Brown pitched there was speculation about him using PEDs but there is no statement proving he used or not. I for one am not sure when the rumors surrounding Brown started so I'd rather not touch on the subject.
Jack Morris was a very good pitcher but Kevin Brown was much better and deserves to be enshrined before the BBWAA even thinks about giving Jack Morris his turn.
Saturday, January 7, 2012
Roy Oswalt and Hiroki Kuroda Alternatives.
This off-season starting pitching hasn't been as deep as past years. C.J. Wilson was the top prize, following him you have the likes of Mark Buehrle, Edwin Jackson, Hiroki Kuroda and Roy Oswalt. Buehrle signed with the Miami Marlins and Edwin Jackson is waiting for a monster contract. The last two are probably looking at 1-2 year deals with more than $9 million a year. There's a pitcher who's been just as good the last three seasons and he's much younger than both of these pitchers.
That pitcher is Gavin Floyd of the Chicago White Sox. Since 2009 Floyd has been almost the exact same pitcher as these two.
[googleapps domain="docs" dir="spreadsheet/pub" query="hl=en_US&hl=en_US&key=0Ag3vWE1mScVDdFpvdl9GSlB1RmNycEg3OUxFR1hLNlE&output=html&widget=true" width="500" height="300" /]
One common these three pitchers all share is that fact that they all are good at limiting the amount of walks that they give up. He also does a good job at getting strikeouts, even though he pounds the zone he limits the amount of home runs he gives up. According to Statcorner's park factors for last year, U.S. Cellular field was 32% easier to hit home runs compared to league average last year. Had it not been as easy to hit home runs, Floyd's HR/FB would have for sure been lower. Dodger Stadium had a park factor of 104 and Citizens Bank Park had a park factor of 118. Oswalt didn't pitch all three seasons with the Phillies but it still was a factor. Floyd actually does a slightly better job at getting groundballs than Oswalt. Since they have such similar peripherals, Floyd's ERA- should drop towards the same level as Oswalt and Kuroda.
Since 2009, Floyd has accumlated 12.4 WAR, averaging out to 4.1 per season. Oswalt has accumlated 10.2 over that period and Kuroda has managed 8.6 WAR. From this you can tell that Floyd has been the more valuable pitcher while being younger as well. Next season Floyd is scheduled to make $7 million dollars, he as a $9.5 million dollar club option for 2013, which is pretty team friendly for a 2.5-4 WAR pitcher.
I'm not sure if the White Sox or rebuilding or not, because of that they may not be willing to deal Floyd. If they were I would imagine they would want a decent haul for him. Prospects aren't exactly my thing so I can't say exactly what it would cost.
Kuroda and Oswalt are good pitchers but they are heading towards the tail end of their careers, if teams are looking for an alternative and they don't want to spend as much as they would by signing one those two than Gavin Floyd may be their best option.
That pitcher is Gavin Floyd of the Chicago White Sox. Since 2009 Floyd has been almost the exact same pitcher as these two.
[googleapps domain="docs" dir="spreadsheet/pub" query="hl=en_US&hl=en_US&key=0Ag3vWE1mScVDdFpvdl9GSlB1RmNycEg3OUxFR1hLNlE&output=html&widget=true" width="500" height="300" /]
One common these three pitchers all share is that fact that they all are good at limiting the amount of walks that they give up. He also does a good job at getting strikeouts, even though he pounds the zone he limits the amount of home runs he gives up. According to Statcorner's park factors for last year, U.S. Cellular field was 32% easier to hit home runs compared to league average last year. Had it not been as easy to hit home runs, Floyd's HR/FB would have for sure been lower. Dodger Stadium had a park factor of 104 and Citizens Bank Park had a park factor of 118. Oswalt didn't pitch all three seasons with the Phillies but it still was a factor. Floyd actually does a slightly better job at getting groundballs than Oswalt. Since they have such similar peripherals, Floyd's ERA- should drop towards the same level as Oswalt and Kuroda.
Since 2009, Floyd has accumlated 12.4 WAR, averaging out to 4.1 per season. Oswalt has accumlated 10.2 over that period and Kuroda has managed 8.6 WAR. From this you can tell that Floyd has been the more valuable pitcher while being younger as well. Next season Floyd is scheduled to make $7 million dollars, he as a $9.5 million dollar club option for 2013, which is pretty team friendly for a 2.5-4 WAR pitcher.
I'm not sure if the White Sox or rebuilding or not, because of that they may not be willing to deal Floyd. If they were I would imagine they would want a decent haul for him. Prospects aren't exactly my thing so I can't say exactly what it would cost.
Kuroda and Oswalt are good pitchers but they are heading towards the tail end of their careers, if teams are looking for an alternative and they don't want to spend as much as they would by signing one those two than Gavin Floyd may be their best option.
Friday, December 16, 2011
Twins Replace Cuddyer With Willingham
The Minnesota Twins finalized a 3 year, $21 million dollar deal with outfielder Josh Willingham today, meaning that the Michael Cuddyer era is all but over in Minnesota. The Twins offer to Willingham was roughly $3 million dollars cheaper overall than the offer the Twins submitted to Cuddyer. Cuddyer was the longest tenured Twin but baseball is a business and in the end Willingham was the cheaper (and better) option. During the past three season Willingham has actually been the better player as well as the more valuable player even though he has roughly 400 less at-bats since 2009.
Cuddyer:
ISO: .189
OBP: .341
wOBA: .351
wRC+: 117
WAR: 6.8
Willingham:
ISO: .222
OBP: .360
wOBA: .366
wRC+: 128
WAR: 7.7
As you can see, Willingham has the advantage in every one of these statistical categories. He has much more power than Cuddyer while getting on-base at an impressive .360 clip. According to park factors the Coliseum makes it 20% harder for right handed hitters to hit home runs compared to league average, making Willingham's power numbers even more impressive last year. Willingham is also producing offensively 11% better than Cuddyer over that span. Both of them are ok defenders, slightly below league average but not much. If anything Cuddyer might have the stronger arm.
Willingham's contract on the other hand is pretty team friendly. For $7 million dollars a year he needs to average less than 2 WAR, that shouldn't be a problem given his past success. If he can average between 2.5 and 1.5 WAR during his contract he should be able to give the Twins roughly $28.14 million dollars in value. Moving from Oakland to Minnesota should be a big help in achieving that goal.
By not signing Cuddyer and signing Willingham the Twins also got two compensation picks when Cuddyer signed a 3 year deal with the Colorado Rockies. The Twins aren't really in re-build mode but when you can get two picks you take it.
Overall, I like this deal a lot for the Twins. They get a power hitting right-handed bat to hit behind Mauer and Morneau and they get him at the right price. If he can stay healthy and produce some pop than the Twins should be very pleased with this deal.
Cuddyer:
ISO: .189
OBP: .341
wOBA: .351
wRC+: 117
WAR: 6.8
Willingham:
ISO: .222
OBP: .360
wOBA: .366
wRC+: 128
WAR: 7.7
As you can see, Willingham has the advantage in every one of these statistical categories. He has much more power than Cuddyer while getting on-base at an impressive .360 clip. According to park factors the Coliseum makes it 20% harder for right handed hitters to hit home runs compared to league average, making Willingham's power numbers even more impressive last year. Willingham is also producing offensively 11% better than Cuddyer over that span. Both of them are ok defenders, slightly below league average but not much. If anything Cuddyer might have the stronger arm.
Willingham's contract on the other hand is pretty team friendly. For $7 million dollars a year he needs to average less than 2 WAR, that shouldn't be a problem given his past success. If he can average between 2.5 and 1.5 WAR during his contract he should be able to give the Twins roughly $28.14 million dollars in value. Moving from Oakland to Minnesota should be a big help in achieving that goal.
By not signing Cuddyer and signing Willingham the Twins also got two compensation picks when Cuddyer signed a 3 year deal with the Colorado Rockies. The Twins aren't really in re-build mode but when you can get two picks you take it.
Overall, I like this deal a lot for the Twins. They get a power hitting right-handed bat to hit behind Mauer and Morneau and they get him at the right price. If he can stay healthy and produce some pop than the Twins should be very pleased with this deal.
Wednesday, December 14, 2011
Brewers Add Aramis Ramirez
With Prince Fielder almost a sure bet to sign somewhere else this off-season the Brewers desperately needed someone to replace his production. Ramirez most likely won't be as good as Fielder was but he should be able to give some production. The contract is for 3 years for a total of $36 million dollars. The downside is that Ramirez is 33 and will be 36 when the deal is over.
Since 2001 Ramirez has been a really good player. He's had a WAR above four five times and has had a WAR above five twice. When Ramirez arrives in Milwaukee he will bring some above average talents with him. He's a power hitter and has an above average ISO. His career .358 wOBA is also league average and should help the Brewers much more than Casey McGhee's .272 from a season ago. Last year he showed that he still can be an offensive producer, his 133 wRC+ last year is a testament to that. His defensive is horrible though, his career UZR is -30.1. Going back to McGhee, last year he was horrible. His ISO, OBP and wOBA were all about as bad as it gets. Ramirez should step in and be much better.
If Ramirez can have WARs of 3, 2.5 and 2 during the three years of the deal he'll give the Brewers $35.2 million dollars of value, which is essentially a push. With Ryan Braun also most likely being suspended this is a move that the Brewers desperately needed to make if they want to make the post-season for the second year in a row.
Since 2001 Ramirez has been a really good player. He's had a WAR above four five times and has had a WAR above five twice. When Ramirez arrives in Milwaukee he will bring some above average talents with him. He's a power hitter and has an above average ISO. His career .358 wOBA is also league average and should help the Brewers much more than Casey McGhee's .272 from a season ago. Last year he showed that he still can be an offensive producer, his 133 wRC+ last year is a testament to that. His defensive is horrible though, his career UZR is -30.1. Going back to McGhee, last year he was horrible. His ISO, OBP and wOBA were all about as bad as it gets. Ramirez should step in and be much better.
If Ramirez can have WARs of 3, 2.5 and 2 during the three years of the deal he'll give the Brewers $35.2 million dollars of value, which is essentially a push. With Ryan Braun also most likely being suspended this is a move that the Brewers desperately needed to make if they want to make the post-season for the second year in a row.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)