The Minnesota Twins finalized a 3 year, $21 million dollar deal with outfielder Josh Willingham today, meaning that the Michael Cuddyer era is all but over in Minnesota. The Twins offer to Willingham was roughly $3 million dollars cheaper overall than the offer the Twins submitted to Cuddyer. Cuddyer was the longest tenured Twin but baseball is a business and in the end Willingham was the cheaper (and better) option. During the past three season Willingham has actually been the better player as well as the more valuable player even though he has roughly 400 less at-bats since 2009.
Cuddyer:
ISO: .189
OBP: .341
wOBA: .351
wRC+: 117
WAR: 6.8
Willingham:
ISO: .222
OBP: .360
wOBA: .366
wRC+: 128
WAR: 7.7
As you can see, Willingham has the advantage in every one of these statistical categories. He has much more power than Cuddyer while getting on-base at an impressive .360 clip. According to park factors the Coliseum makes it 20% harder for right handed hitters to hit home runs compared to league average, making Willingham's power numbers even more impressive last year. Willingham is also producing offensively 11% better than Cuddyer over that span. Both of them are ok defenders, slightly below league average but not much. If anything Cuddyer might have the stronger arm.
Willingham's contract on the other hand is pretty team friendly. For $7 million dollars a year he needs to average less than 2 WAR, that shouldn't be a problem given his past success. If he can average between 2.5 and 1.5 WAR during his contract he should be able to give the Twins roughly $28.14 million dollars in value. Moving from Oakland to Minnesota should be a big help in achieving that goal.
By not signing Cuddyer and signing Willingham the Twins also got two compensation picks when Cuddyer signed a 3 year deal with the Colorado Rockies. The Twins aren't really in re-build mode but when you can get two picks you take it.
Overall, I like this deal a lot for the Twins. They get a power hitting right-handed bat to hit behind Mauer and Morneau and they get him at the right price. If he can stay healthy and produce some pop than the Twins should be very pleased with this deal.
Had some google doc troubles so that's why the statistics are in list form.
ReplyDeleteA couple things: first, both of their defensive abilities would rate as poor. Willingham has a -13 UZR the past 3 seasons (~2650 innings), or about a -7 UZR/150. Cuddyer has a -19 OF UZR in the same timespan (~2200 innings), which is around a -11 UZR/150. With both of them turning 33 before Opening Day, that part of their game won't be getting any better.
ReplyDeleteSecond, Willingham showed some signs of aging that could be concerning. His K% jumped way higher than his previous career high, possibly showing a need to cheat on pitches. His walk rate also fell precipitously, and it is not due to a change in intentional walks (e.g. Pujols). 2011 was his first year in the AL, possibly explaining an adjustment period, but it could be a sign of a fast fall. I think this was a good move, but by 2014, it could be ugly.
I wouldn't be surprised if Joe Benson or Oswaldo Arcia were starting then but hopefully the first two years are good.
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