Tuesday, January 24, 2012

Lincecum Avoids Arbitration for Good

Tim Lincecum and the Giants have agreed to a 2 year, $40.5M deal to avoid arbitration.  Lincecum is set to make $18M this year and $22M in 2013, plus a $500K signing bonus.  Lincecum had put a $21.5M figure in for arbitration, and the team put in $17M, so the Giants get a bit of a deal for this year and likely next year.  The past 2 years, Lincecum has been a 4-5 win pitcher, after a couple 6-8 win seasons in '08 and '09.  If he continues to pitch at the same level, this is essentially a market-level deal.

However, his underlying skills have been diminishing the past 2 years.  His K has dropped from 28.8% to 24.4%, BB rate has risen from 7.5% to 9.6%, and his first-pitch strike percentage has dropped from 56.7% to 53.7%, while the league average has risen 1.2%.  His Zone% has decreased 4% in the PITCHf/x stats, where league average has remained steady.

Lincecum has expressed his desire to have short-term contracts, so this wasn't too unexpected.  Once he hits free agency, he will most likely get a Sabathia-type deal, 7+ years and $160M+.  Every other big name starting pitcher set for the 2014 free agent class has had major injury issues, so Lincecum's demand could be very high.


  1. Which pitchers are destined for Free Agency in 2014 with Timmy?

  2. Adam Wainwright and Josh Johnson are the 2 top-level pitchers with injury issues. Dan Haren is the best pitcher available who has stayed healthy. Other pitchers include Carpenter, Tim Hudson, Jurrjens, Garza, and Ervin Santana.