Sunday, May 27, 2012

Adam Jones' Massive Payday

Adam Jones and the Baltimore Orioles have been negotiation a new contract for the outfielder, and seems like they may have finally come to terms on contract. The deal is believed to be for 6 years for $85 million. That turns out to be $14.17 million dollars annually. The deal should be fair for both side as long as he continues to perform offensively during his prime.

Adam Jones is currently off to the best season of his career. He's on pace to post career highs in ISO, wRC+ as well as WAR. His 5% walk rate is right around his career average, but he's managed to reduce his strikeout percentage from 19.5% to 17%. His .290 ISO is abnormally high, but even if he gets hit with some regression there is still a good chance that he finishes with a career high in that department. His .319 BABIP is essentially is career average, meaning there's a strong possibility that Jones is able to produce at a similar level the rest of the season. His wRC+ is an incredible 161, while it's likely that it isn't that high by seasons' end there is still a possibility.

Value wise the Orioles should make out just fine. In order to be worth $14 million dollars a season, Adam Jones has to produce roughly 2.8 WAR a season. Since Adam Jones is just entering his prime he should be able to be at least a 3.5-4 WAR player. Since the contract starts next season this is a reasonable line to expect:

2013: 4 WAR

2014: 4 WAR

2015: 3.5 WAR

2016: 3 WAR

2017: 2.5 WAR

2018: 2 WAR

That adds up to 19 total WAR, and around $95 million dollars of value. The Orioles would get a surplus of $10 million dollars while getting an extremely talented player. Overall. the Orioles get a nice young player locked up through his prime, and Adam Jones gets the security while also making a ton of money.

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