Showing posts with label los angeles angels. Show all posts
Showing posts with label los angeles angels. Show all posts
Saturday, May 12, 2012
Trading Peter Bourjos Would be a Mistake
Since last season the Los Angeles Angels have dangled OF, Peter Bourjos, in front of teams that needed an outfielder. It's no secret that the Washington Nationals have had interest in the outfielder. Just last season they tried to acquire him, but to no avail. Their name came up again today in a rumor that would have sent Bourjos to them. The Angels need bullpen help, but trading Bourjos to get that help would be a huge mistake.
Saturday, December 10, 2011
C.J. Wilson Makes Angels Rotation Even Better
Right after the Angels landed Albert Pujols, the best free agent of the off-season they went on and added the best starting pitcher, C.J. Wilson. Adding Wilson to the rotation makes the Angels' pitching even better than it was before the signing. Since converting to a starter in 2010 Wilson has totaled 10.5 WAR and a FIP- of 78, making him one of the best pitchers in baseball. The Angels rotation was already good enough before Wilson arrived. As a starting staff they had 17 WAR (.6 came from Chatwood, he was traded to Colorado in the Iannetta deal. Without Chatwood the starters had 16.4 WAR). Overall, they were 4th in all of baseball with 17.8 pitcher WAR. I didn't factor in pitchers who only pitched a few games. They were also 5th overall in FIP-, C.J. Wilson should only make them better.
The Angels should also expect to get good value from Wilson during his contract. In 2010 he posted 4.6 WAR and gave the Rangers $18.5 million dollars of value, last year he posted 5.9 WAR and was worth $26.5 million dollars of value. The Angels are paying him $15.5 million a year. Using $4.5/win and accounting for the 5% inflation per year we get the following value numbers for Wilson.
[googleapps domain="docs" dir="spreadsheet/pub" query="hl=en_US&hl=en_US&key=0Ag3vWE1mScVDdEx6TVZTVzRCVUlFVHpGbER3dVFma0E&output=html&widget=true" width="325" height="247" /]
Overall, Wilson should give the Angels $98.23 million dollars of value, meaning they get $20.73 million dollars in surplus value, a number like this extraordinary. Before free agency started it was rumored that Wilson was looking for 6 years and $100+, the Angels saved a ton of money while getting value out of Wilson. While Wilson will most likely be the Angels number three starter based on last years numbers he could be the number two, ahead of Haren and has the potential to be the number one.
The Angels should also expect to get good value from Wilson during his contract. In 2010 he posted 4.6 WAR and gave the Rangers $18.5 million dollars of value, last year he posted 5.9 WAR and was worth $26.5 million dollars of value. The Angels are paying him $15.5 million a year. Using $4.5/win and accounting for the 5% inflation per year we get the following value numbers for Wilson.
[googleapps domain="docs" dir="spreadsheet/pub" query="hl=en_US&hl=en_US&key=0Ag3vWE1mScVDdEx6TVZTVzRCVUlFVHpGbER3dVFma0E&output=html&widget=true" width="325" height="247" /]
Overall, Wilson should give the Angels $98.23 million dollars of value, meaning they get $20.73 million dollars in surplus value, a number like this extraordinary. Before free agency started it was rumored that Wilson was looking for 6 years and $100+, the Angels saved a ton of money while getting value out of Wilson. While Wilson will most likely be the Angels number three starter based on last years numbers he could be the number two, ahead of Haren and has the potential to be the number one.
Friday, December 9, 2011
Pujols, Angels Agree to Blockbuster
Talk about surprising. Yesterday it was revealed that Albert Pujols will be joining the Los Angeles Angels and not the Miami Marlins or St. Louis Cardinals like many expected. The deal was for 10 years and $254 million dollars. The deal also comes with a full no trade clause so Pujols won't be going anywhere.
We all know how good Pujols is so there really isn't a need for a huge explanation. He's the best first basemen in baseball and one of the best overall players. He's coming off his worst year, posting an ISO of .242, a .385 wOBA, a 148 wRC+ and a 5.1 WAR. Not bad for your worst season. Pujols did suffer from some injuries this season so if he come's back healthy he should easily post 6.5+ WAR.
Over the first six years of the contract Pujols should be relatively solid, more so the first four. The last four probably won't be as good but with Pujols the good massively out ways the bad. Let's take a look at what kind of value Pujols should provide during his tenure with the Angels. The salary is in millions.
[googleapps domain="docs" dir="spreadsheet/pub" query="hl=en_US&hl=en_US&key=0Ag3vWE1mScVDdEYzb2xaVzc0R1d3OTFHaFlpX3owaHc&output=html&widget=true" width="455" height="302" /]
For the most part my prediction was fairly accurate. The first five years Pujols is giving the Angels some really good value. You could say he is his sixth year as well but after that he begins to declines, which is only natural. Overall I have Pujols giving the Angels roughly $240 million dollars worth of value, a number that's ridiculous and given the circumstances the Angels should be ecstatic to get that out of Albert. In Albert's case overpaying for him isn't as bad as overpaying for someone of much lesser talent because of how good he is and his potential, so in this case we can call his actual deal and his projected value a push.
Pujols does come with his share of injury concerns though. Even though he has the concerns he's still managed to play more than 150 games per season except two and has played 140+ games ever since.
Pujols will be a massive improvement over Trumbo next season as well.
[googleapps domain="docs" dir="spreadsheet/pub" query="key=0Ag3vWE1mScVDdGJXRDk5czhCWW9QTGZNUVRRYkV3cGc&output=html&widget=true" width="430" height="342" /]
While traditional statistics may show that Trumbo had a good rookie campaign, if we dive deeper we realize that he's essentially league average. His offensive production was only 5% better than league average, his WAR was pretty much league average as was his wOBA. Pujols was obviously much better, something that shouldn't come as a surprise.
I could keep going on and posting statistics but it would be a waste of time, you all should know (I hope) that Pujols is pretty much a machine. The Angels are easily the winner of the off-seasons, oh yeah they also got C.J. Wilson. The Angels will be a force to be reckoned with next season and shouldn't be taken lightly at all.
We all know how good Pujols is so there really isn't a need for a huge explanation. He's the best first basemen in baseball and one of the best overall players. He's coming off his worst year, posting an ISO of .242, a .385 wOBA, a 148 wRC+ and a 5.1 WAR. Not bad for your worst season. Pujols did suffer from some injuries this season so if he come's back healthy he should easily post 6.5+ WAR.
Over the first six years of the contract Pujols should be relatively solid, more so the first four. The last four probably won't be as good but with Pujols the good massively out ways the bad. Let's take a look at what kind of value Pujols should provide during his tenure with the Angels. The salary is in millions.
[googleapps domain="docs" dir="spreadsheet/pub" query="hl=en_US&hl=en_US&key=0Ag3vWE1mScVDdEYzb2xaVzc0R1d3OTFHaFlpX3owaHc&output=html&widget=true" width="455" height="302" /]
For the most part my prediction was fairly accurate. The first five years Pujols is giving the Angels some really good value. You could say he is his sixth year as well but after that he begins to declines, which is only natural. Overall I have Pujols giving the Angels roughly $240 million dollars worth of value, a number that's ridiculous and given the circumstances the Angels should be ecstatic to get that out of Albert. In Albert's case overpaying for him isn't as bad as overpaying for someone of much lesser talent because of how good he is and his potential, so in this case we can call his actual deal and his projected value a push.
Pujols does come with his share of injury concerns though. Even though he has the concerns he's still managed to play more than 150 games per season except two and has played 140+ games ever since.
Pujols will be a massive improvement over Trumbo next season as well.
[googleapps domain="docs" dir="spreadsheet/pub" query="key=0Ag3vWE1mScVDdGJXRDk5czhCWW9QTGZNUVRRYkV3cGc&output=html&widget=true" width="430" height="342" /]
While traditional statistics may show that Trumbo had a good rookie campaign, if we dive deeper we realize that he's essentially league average. His offensive production was only 5% better than league average, his WAR was pretty much league average as was his wOBA. Pujols was obviously much better, something that shouldn't come as a surprise.
I could keep going on and posting statistics but it would be a waste of time, you all should know (I hope) that Pujols is pretty much a machine. The Angels are easily the winner of the off-seasons, oh yeah they also got C.J. Wilson. The Angels will be a force to be reckoned with next season and shouldn't be taken lightly at all.
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