The Twins Get A Bargain With Willingham

After having one of their worst seasons in recent memory the Minnesota Twins went into the 2012 off-season in need of major help. Justin Morneau only played in 69 games due to concussion symptoms and compiled an abysmal .274 wOBA. Joe Mauer dealt with a number of ailments, most notably bi-lateral leg weakness, and played in only 82 games. In those 82 games he only managed to have a .319 wOBA. That's not exactly what you want from the two highest paid players on your team. As a result the Twins went out and signed free agent, Josh Willingham, to a three year deal worth twenty one million dollars. To date that was the most expensive free agent contract that the Twins have given out, so they needed it to be a good deal. After the jump we will see how it's turned out so far.

Twins Replace Cuddyer With Willingham

The Minnesota Twins finalized a 3 year, $21 million dollar deal with outfielder Josh Willingham today, meaning that the Michael Cuddyer era is all but over in Minnesota. The Twins offer to Willingham was roughly $3 million dollars cheaper overall than the offer the Twins submitted to Cuddyer. Cuddyer was the longest tenured Twin but baseball is a business and in the end Willingham was the cheaper (and better) option. During the past three season Willingham has actually been the better player as well as the more valuable player even though he has roughly 400 less at-bats since 2009.

Cuddyer:

ISO: .189

OBP: .341

wOBA: .351

wRC+: 117

WAR: 6.8

Willingham:

ISO: .222

OBP: .360

wOBA: .366

wRC+: 128

WAR: 7.7

As you can see, Willingham has the advantage in every one of these statistical categories. He has much more power than Cuddyer while getting on-base at an impressive .360 clip. According to park factors the Coliseum makes it 20% harder for right handed hitters to hit home runs compared to league average, making Willingham's power numbers even more impressive last year. Willingham is also producing offensively 11% better than Cuddyer over that span. Both of them are ok defenders, slightly below league average but not much. If anything Cuddyer might have the stronger arm.

Willingham's contract on the other hand is pretty team friendly. For $7 million dollars a year he needs to average less than 2 WAR, that shouldn't be a problem given his past success. If he can average between 2.5 and 1.5 WAR during his contract he should be able to give the Twins roughly $28.14 million dollars in value. Moving from Oakland to Minnesota should be a big help in achieving that goal.

By not signing Cuddyer and signing Willingham the Twins also got two compensation picks when Cuddyer signed a 3 year deal with the Colorado Rockies. The Twins aren't really in re-build mode but when you can get two picks you take it.

Overall, I like this deal a lot for the Twins. They get a power hitting right-handed bat to hit behind Mauer and Morneau and they get him at the right price. If he can stay healthy and produce some pop than the Twins should be very pleased with this deal.

Josh Willingham, not Cuddyer Should be Teams Focus

This off-season the outfield free agents aren't that great. There are some solid ones though like Carlos Beltran, Michael Cuddyer and Josh Willingham. While the two players are nearly identical Willingham is the better player. They both hit from the right side of the plate. Both are in their lower 30s, they both can hit for power. For the most part Willingham has been the more successful player, posting WARs between 2-3 for 5 seasons. Cuddyer has posted WARs between 2 and 3 himself but between those years he's had a ,8 WAR season and 0 WAR season. The 0 WAR season was due to injury but he still played 70+ games that year.

Since 2006 both players have been nearly identical.

Name		G	PA	H				SB	BB%	K%	ISO	BABIP	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA				WAR
Josh Willingham		771	3109	696				29	11.3 %	21.0 %	.216	.298	.262	.361	.478	.365				14.8
Michael Cuddyer		814	3446	848				40	9.0 %	16.9 %	.184	.307	.275	.347	.459	.351				12.3

Cuddyer has been the slightly more durable player but during the 2004 and 2005 seasons Willingham only played a combined 28 games. Willingham has shown better power, the ISO differential is .032. Willingham also has a higher OBP and BB%. Cuddyer's plate discapline is much better then Willingham's, he struck out 4.1% during that span. The BABIP results aren't that signifacant at all, Cuddyer's .307 BABIP is a sustainable number so nothing can be taken from that. Willingham has also produced more WAR over that time span. Besides Cuddyer's SB, K% and PA Willingham has proven to be the better player.

Why are teams more interested in Cuddyer then? Cuddyer is a much more versatile player then Willingham. Since 2009 Cuddyer has played 1,370 innings at first base, he played 140 innings at second base last season and 107 innings at third base in 2010. He did play 1,154 innings at third baseb between 2004 and 2005 but I doubt he'd play third unless needed. His normal position is right field so he's gotten a ton of innings in the outfield. Besides the offensive production that right there is a big reason why teams may be more interested in Cuddyer.

Willingham will probably prove to be the cheaper option though. In 2011 Willingham made $6 million dollars, Cuddyer made $10.5 million. Cuddyer is rumored to be looking for a 3 year deal worth more than $30 million dollars. Willingham should be able to be had for a 2-3 year deal at $8 million annually. Neither player will transfrom whatever team they go to but both will be solid players who should be able to produce between 2 and 3 WAR a season. Teams that are looking to get a solid outfield option should defiantly take a look at Willingham.