Saturday, October 22, 2011

Game Three Preview

Tonight in the third game of the World Series Kyle Lohse is set to face off against Matt Harrison. The line-up for the visiting St. Louis Cardinals is:

Furcal Bats Both, as R vs L:

8.5 BB%

 9.6 K%

.115 ISO 

.237 BABIP

84 wRC+

Craig Bats R vs L:

4.3 BB%

17.1 K%

.343 ISO

.320 BABIP

.424 wOBA

175 wRC+ (SSS)

Pujols Bats R vs L:

7.3 BB%

9.7 K%

.313 ISO

 .255 BABIP

 .392 wOBA

153 wRC+

Holliday Bats R vs L:

20 BB%

18.2 K%

 .209 ISO

 .290 BABIP

 .387 wOBA

 149 wRC+

Berkman Bats Both, as L vs R:

 8 BB%

18.8 K%

.178 ISO

 .316 BABIP

 .353 wOBA

 126 wRC+

Freese Bats R vs L:

 7.1 BB%

16.7 K%

 .160 ISO

 .383 BABIP

 .389 wOBA

 150 wRC+

Molina Bats R vs L:

13.4 BB%

10.1 K%

.176 ISO

 .291 BABIP

 .366 wOBA

 135 wRC+

Jay Bats L vs L:

 5.8 BB%

 15.4 K%

.106 ISO

 .333 BABIP

 .320 wOBA

103 wRC+

Theriot Bats R vs L:

5.8 BB%

 5.8 K%

.103 ISO

.331 BABIP

.339 wOBA

116 wRC+

When Harrison is facing lefties he posts much better stats. He has a 3.38 FIP, 19.8 K%, 5.8 BB% but he also gives up more home runs, .84 HR/9. When facing lefties he has a higher GB%, 51.3% and a lower FB%, 26.9%.  Against righties he struggles a little more. His FIP is 3.57 he has a 15 K% and 8 BB%. He does give up less home runs though, .54 HR/9. His 46 GB% is lower then when he faces lefties but his 34.3 FB% is higher.  The Cardinals line-up is stacked with right handed hitters who mash lefties so it wouldn't be surprising to see if he struggled tonight.

The line-up for the Texas Rangers is:

Kinsler Bats R vs R:

11.6 BB%

9.9 K%

.213 ISO

.245 BABIP

.357 wOBA

 119 wRC+

Andrus Bats R vs R:

8.2 BB%

11.5 K%

.083 ISO

.314 BABIP

 .316 wOBA

 92 wRC+

Hamilton Bats L vs R:

8.6 BB%

15.4 K%

.220 ISO

 .336 BABIP

 .377 wOBA

 133 wRC+ 

Young Bats R vs R:

 6.9 BB%

11.2 K%

.135 ISO

 .354 BABIP

 .362 wOBA

 122 wRC+

Beltre Bats R vs R:

 3.3 BB%

10.8 K%

.234 ISO

 .274 BABIP

 .357 wOBA

119 wRC+

Cruz Bats R vs R:

 5.7 BB%

 24.3 K%

 .216 ISO

 .268 BABIP

 .323 wOBA

 96 wRC+

Napoli Bats R vs R:

 12.1 BB%

18.5 K%

 .316 ISO

 .335 BABIP

.443 wOBA

178 wRC+

Murphy Bats L vs R:

7.5 BB%

13.4 K%

 .165 ISO

 .316 BABIP

 .350 wOBA

115 wRC+

Torrealba Bats R vs R:

 4.4 BB%

 16.7 K%

 .154 ISO

 .317 BABIP

 .324 wOBA

 96 wRC+

Kyle Lohse is a pretty solid pitcher. Against righties and lefties he posts pretty similar stats. Against righties he posts a 3.66 FIP and a 3.68 FIP against lefties. His xFIP against righties is 3.98 and against lefties it's 4.10. Against righties he has a 13.5 K% and a 5 BB%. He can give up home runs, he had a .78 HR/9 versus righties. Against lefties he has a 15.3 K% and a 5.9 BB%, almost identical when he faces righties. Against lefties he gives up .75 HR/9, again almost identical to righties. Cruz really struggles against righties and Hamilton is hurt so Lohse might have a slight advantage but Young, Cruz, Beltre and Napoli crush righties. Lohse is a solid pitcher but Texas' line-up doesn't struggle too bad against right handed pitchers.

I think the low scoring affair ends tonight, the bullpens should have a big factor. I'm not sure if Ogando is available tonight but he may be needed if Harrison blows up. Same goes for Jake Westbrook of the Cardinals.

If you want you can follow a WPA graph that I will try to get up around game time. You can use these to see how certain moments in the game affect the probability of the Rangers or Cardinals winning. It's pretty cool, if I don't get it up in time you can see them at Fangraphs under the scoreboard tab.

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