Yadier Molina Signs Extension

Yadier Molina has signed a 5-year, $75M extension with the Cardinals, with a mutual option for 2018.  His $7M salary for 2012 will hold, with the $15M starting in 2013.  Molina turns 30 in July, so it's safe to say his peak is ending at this moment.  $15M a year for a catcher in his 30s is quite risky.  There was definitely some pressure on the front office to lock him up after letting Pujols go.

One possible good sign was his significant increase of power last season, doubling his HR and ISO.  His FB% increased 5%, which doubles as a power increase and less outs on groundballs with his lack of speed.  I project him with a .285/.340/.412 slashline, about 5 wRAA.  This leads to a 4 WAR season, but the extension doesn't start until after this season.  Here's my timeline of production under the extension:

Year	WAR	$/WAR	Value
2013	3.5	4.6	16.2
2014	3	4.8	14.3
2015	2.5	4.9	12.3
2016	2	5.1	10.1
2017	1.5	5.2	7.8
	12.5		60.8

As you see, with 3% inflation and the standard .5 WAR a year decrease in value, Molina falls short of the $75M value.  This does not include the $6M buyout on the 2018 mutual option, further increasing the overpay.  The lack of production should not be surprising, since only eight catchers have ever accumulated 15 WAR in their age 31-35 seasons.

 

Rk	Player	WAR/pos	From	To	G	PA	BA	OBP	SLG
1	Jorge Posada	24.5	2003	2007	708	2815	0.287	0.392	0.494
2	Elston Howard	21.8	1960	1964	657	2519	0.297	0.346	0.478
3	Yogi Berra	20	1956	1960	647	2542	0.275	0.345	0.472
4	Gene Tenace	19.1	1978	1982	550	1852	0.24	0.403	0.431
5	Ivan Rodriguez	16.8	2003	2007	673	2773	0.298	0.335	0.457
6	Gabby Hartnett	16.5	1932	1936	628	2414	0.298	0.36	0.471
7	Jason Varitek	15.4	2003	2007	646	2530	0.27	0.361	0.464
8	Bill Dickey	15.1	1938	1942	557	2213	0.29	0.381	0.458

Not only did St. Louis drive up the price of their own catcher, but they helped Brian McCann, Mike Napoli, and other catchers nearing free agency.  The Cardinals do not have a major catching prospect in their system, so they were willing to spend a bit more to keep Molina.  There have been much worse overpays, but any overpay is a bad one.