Travis d'Arnaud came over to the Blue Jays in the trade that sent Roy Halladay to the Phillies. Last year he had an OK season in A+ ball but this year in AA he's really starting to take off.
d'Arnaud is posting a very solid .232 ISO, he's always had solid power but this year it's really starting to come on. His .393 OBP is above and beyond what one would ask out of him, as is his .420 wOBA. He could improve his eye at the plate, his BB% is 7.9%. If he could bring it up 2% or so that'd be ideal. His 20.4% K% isn't awful as long as he still supplies power. d'Aranaud's 161 wRC+ is 61% better then his league's average, a crazy number that probably isn't sustainable. It's no secret that he's had help based off his .383 BABIP so regression to the mean is definitely expected.
d'Arnaud is only 22 so he has a little more room for improvement but at the pace he's at he could potentially see time on the big league club in 2012 and if everything goes right he should be the starting catcher in 2013.
Showing posts with label ISO. Show all posts
Showing posts with label ISO. Show all posts
Wednesday, August 17, 2011
Monday, August 8, 2011
What's Wrong With Carlos Gonzalez?
Last year Carlos Gonzalez had a monster season for the Colorado Rockies, posting a 6.6 WAR, .416 wOBA, 151 wRC+, 48.4 wRAA and a .241 ISO. One number that really stuck out though was his .384 BABIP which is extremely unsustainable. Now it's no secret that Coors Field is a hitters dream so let's look closer at some home and away splits and see how Gonzalez faired at Coors and away from home last year.
Coors:
BABIP: .391
HR/FB: 27.7%
ISO: .357
wRAA: 44.1
wOBA: .487
wRC+: 199
As you can see Gonzalez simply dominated Coors last year, posting a robust .487 wOBA, a .357 ISO among other numbers. At Coors, everytime Gonzalez is hitting a flyball it ends up in the seats over 25% of the time, to put it in perspective Albert Pujols had a HR/FB rate of 15% at home last year and 21.4% on the road and he's one of the best power hitters in the game. Those numbers just don't happen. I want you to take a look at his BABIP though. It's .391 which is absolutely ridiculous, no way is that sustainable through a whole season. Let's take a look at what Gonzalez did last year when he was on the road.
Away:
BABIP: .375
HR/FB: 11%
ISO: .164
wRAA: 4.5
wOBA: .339
wRC+: 100
All I can say is wow. His BABIP was still high but his other numbers were awful. His wRC+ is right at league average, his wOBA is in roughly the 65th percentile, his wRAA is slightly above average and his ISO is slightly above average as well. That HR/FB is what really surprised me though. Only 11%, last year league average was 10.6%. To simply put it, Carlos Gonzalez was average on the road last season. That just shows you how much Colorado hitters gain from playing in the mile high city. Let's take a look at Carlos Gonzalez this year.
So far he has a 2.2 WAR, .365 wOBA, 122 wRC+, 15.5 wRAA, .196 ISO and a .325 BABIP. Right off the bat his BABIP tells me he finally regressed closer to his true playing level but let's take a look at his splits and see what we can come up with.
Coors:
BABIP: .352
HR/FB: 15.9%
ISO: .234
wRAA: 17.8
wOBA: .414
wRC+: 155
Like I mentioned before it looks like Gonzalez is experiencing natural regression this year, last year's .391 BABIP has come down to .351 and has brought all of his other stats down with it. One thing I didn't post earlier is his IFFB% which is infield fly ball percentage or popouts as we call them. Last year his IFFB% at Coors was a crazy 5.3% and this year it's increased roughly 10% as it sits at 15.9% right now so that definitely hurts. On the road it's decreased about 1%, going from 13.7 to 12.9 so not much can be taken from that. I do realize Gonzalez was hurt a little this year but to me, it just seems like Gonzalez is going through natural regression at Coors. Let's see what we can get out of his away splits.
AWAY:
BABIP: .282
ISO: .143
HR/FB: 16.1
wRAA: -2.1
wOBA: .299
wRC+: 77
Wow. Gonzalez has been flat out bad on the road this year. His wOBA is about as bad as it gets. He's cost the Rockies 2.1 runs and has created 23 runs below league average. His BABIP isn't even that far below league average so that is kind of worrisome. Like I said he's been just flat out bad.
Gonzalez has been a huge disappointment this year even though he's in a very hitters friendly park in Coors Field. Will he rebound to last years' success or is this the Gonzalez we will contiue to see. I guess we'll find out next year, in the mean time he hasn't been living up to the expectations.
Coors:
BABIP: .391
HR/FB: 27.7%
ISO: .357
wRAA: 44.1
wOBA: .487
wRC+: 199
As you can see Gonzalez simply dominated Coors last year, posting a robust .487 wOBA, a .357 ISO among other numbers. At Coors, everytime Gonzalez is hitting a flyball it ends up in the seats over 25% of the time, to put it in perspective Albert Pujols had a HR/FB rate of 15% at home last year and 21.4% on the road and he's one of the best power hitters in the game. Those numbers just don't happen. I want you to take a look at his BABIP though. It's .391 which is absolutely ridiculous, no way is that sustainable through a whole season. Let's take a look at what Gonzalez did last year when he was on the road.
Away:
BABIP: .375
HR/FB: 11%
ISO: .164
wRAA: 4.5
wOBA: .339
wRC+: 100
All I can say is wow. His BABIP was still high but his other numbers were awful. His wRC+ is right at league average, his wOBA is in roughly the 65th percentile, his wRAA is slightly above average and his ISO is slightly above average as well. That HR/FB is what really surprised me though. Only 11%, last year league average was 10.6%. To simply put it, Carlos Gonzalez was average on the road last season. That just shows you how much Colorado hitters gain from playing in the mile high city. Let's take a look at Carlos Gonzalez this year.
So far he has a 2.2 WAR, .365 wOBA, 122 wRC+, 15.5 wRAA, .196 ISO and a .325 BABIP. Right off the bat his BABIP tells me he finally regressed closer to his true playing level but let's take a look at his splits and see what we can come up with.
Coors:
BABIP: .352
HR/FB: 15.9%
ISO: .234
wRAA: 17.8
wOBA: .414
wRC+: 155
Like I mentioned before it looks like Gonzalez is experiencing natural regression this year, last year's .391 BABIP has come down to .351 and has brought all of his other stats down with it. One thing I didn't post earlier is his IFFB% which is infield fly ball percentage or popouts as we call them. Last year his IFFB% at Coors was a crazy 5.3% and this year it's increased roughly 10% as it sits at 15.9% right now so that definitely hurts. On the road it's decreased about 1%, going from 13.7 to 12.9 so not much can be taken from that. I do realize Gonzalez was hurt a little this year but to me, it just seems like Gonzalez is going through natural regression at Coors. Let's see what we can get out of his away splits.
AWAY:
BABIP: .282
ISO: .143
HR/FB: 16.1
wRAA: -2.1
wOBA: .299
wRC+: 77
Wow. Gonzalez has been flat out bad on the road this year. His wOBA is about as bad as it gets. He's cost the Rockies 2.1 runs and has created 23 runs below league average. His BABIP isn't even that far below league average so that is kind of worrisome. Like I said he's been just flat out bad.
Gonzalez has been a huge disappointment this year even though he's in a very hitters friendly park in Coors Field. Will he rebound to last years' success or is this the Gonzalez we will contiue to see. I guess we'll find out next year, in the mean time he hasn't been living up to the expectations.
Saturday, August 6, 2011
It's Time to Extend Mike Stanton
Marlins OFer Mike Stanton is putting up a solid year and just might be in line for a nice new contract. He has a 3 WAR, .1 more then all of last year but the thing that really stands out about Mike Stanton is his massive power. Last year in 100 games Stanton hit 22 home runs to go along with a .248 ISO. His wOBA of .355 was solid for a rookie and this year he's brought that up to a .370 wOBA which is typically in the seventy fifth percentile. His strikeout rate was a little concerning last year, striking out 31.1% but if he can bring that down and still supply good power numbers, a good ISO and wOBA then it shouldn't be too concerning.
This year he's doing much better. He has 25 home runs in 106 games, his ISO is twenty three points higher, currently at .271 which is good for fifth in baseball and second in the National League. Stanton's wOBA is fifteen points higher then last year, sitting at .370 like I mentioned before. He's brought his strikeout percentage down to 27.3%, if he can bring it down to around 25% that would be ideal but again other factos make up for it. His wRC+ of 133 is fifteen points higher then last year putting him in around the seventy fifth percentile. Offensively about the only thing Stanton won't give you is stolen bases but that isn't a big deal.
So far he's posted solid UZR numbers, posting a 8.7 UZR this year and a 2 UZR last year. That's only from one and a half seasons though so the sample size is still small and not much should be taken from those numbers yet.
Based on dollar values Stanton has been worth $13.3 million this year and $11.4 last year giving the Marlins over $24.7 million dollars of value.
Based on all this information the Marlins need to give Stanton a contract similar to Longoria's 5 year $16 million dollar deal that he signed in 2008. The contract can be worth up to 44 million dollars as it has a few uption years but it's easily the most friendly contract in all of baseball. If the Marlins want to sign Stanton cheap they'll need to do it before he hits superstardom.
This year he's doing much better. He has 25 home runs in 106 games, his ISO is twenty three points higher, currently at .271 which is good for fifth in baseball and second in the National League. Stanton's wOBA is fifteen points higher then last year, sitting at .370 like I mentioned before. He's brought his strikeout percentage down to 27.3%, if he can bring it down to around 25% that would be ideal but again other factos make up for it. His wRC+ of 133 is fifteen points higher then last year putting him in around the seventy fifth percentile. Offensively about the only thing Stanton won't give you is stolen bases but that isn't a big deal.
So far he's posted solid UZR numbers, posting a 8.7 UZR this year and a 2 UZR last year. That's only from one and a half seasons though so the sample size is still small and not much should be taken from those numbers yet.
Based on dollar values Stanton has been worth $13.3 million this year and $11.4 last year giving the Marlins over $24.7 million dollars of value.
Based on all this information the Marlins need to give Stanton a contract similar to Longoria's 5 year $16 million dollar deal that he signed in 2008. The contract can be worth up to 44 million dollars as it has a few uption years but it's easily the most friendly contract in all of baseball. If the Marlins want to sign Stanton cheap they'll need to do it before he hits superstardom.
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