The Rockies are coming off a disappointing seasons where they only won 72 games. In terms of offense and pitching they were in the middle of the pack. Troy Tulowitzki is coming off one of his best seasons as a pro, and Carlos Gonzalez was impactful as well. The Rockies traded starting pitcher Ubaldo Jiminez got traded halfway through the year for some top minor league arms.
Showing posts with label Rockies. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Rockies. Show all posts
Wednesday, February 8, 2012
Thursday, December 1, 2011
Angels, Rockies Swap Players.
Yesterday the Colorado Rockies and Los Angeles Angels swapped Chris Iannetta and Tyler Chatwood. On the surface it looks like a really good deal for the Angels. They badly needed a catcher after getting .191/.253/.301 out of their catchers last year which is terrible. Iannetta on the other hand posted much better statistics, during the season, he had .248/.370/.417. If we dig deeper and look at some splits as well as some advanced statistics we realize that Iannetta was horrible on the road. This shouldn't come as a total surpise, Coors inflates offensive even if it isn't as much since the humidor at Coors got implemented.
Throughout his career Iannetta has performed much better at home. Since 2006 you can see how he has performed at home and away from home in this spreadsheet.
[googleapps domain="docs" dir="spreadsheet/pub" query="hl=en_US&hl=en_US&key=0AoxdCp-sqCG3dFhfSS1mWWhMVk82alV4ZGc0MjQ0Nnc&output=html&widget=true" width="437" height="302" /]
The two big things that really jump out at you are Iannetta's big drop offs in power and his wRC+. Coors is one to increase power but when he's away from Coors he's hardly above average power wise. When he's away from home he's also creating runs 19% worse then league average, Angel fans don't want to see that. Iannetta can do damage at Coors but when he's away he's just not as good.
The Angels got 21 year old Tyler Chatwood. Last year was his first taste of big league experience and he wasn't that impressive.
In 27 games last year, 25 starts, Chatwood had an unimpressive 4.89 FP and 4.90 xFIP. He doesn't strike out batters and has a problem walking them. He struck out 11.7% of the batters he faced and walked 11.2% he faced. If he wants to stay in the big leagues he needs to cut down walks by a big margin. He has the potential to be a 3 or 4 in the big leagues but it might be in Colorado's best interest to let Chatwood start the year in the minors.
In the end, both teams got what they needed. Whether it pays off or not remains to be seen though. If I had to I'd say Colorado got the better deal. They got a young pitcher with potential and signed former Reds catcher Ramon Hernandez to fill their void. I didn't talk about Hernandez but look out for a post in the near future.
Throughout his career Iannetta has performed much better at home. Since 2006 you can see how he has performed at home and away from home in this spreadsheet.
[googleapps domain="docs" dir="spreadsheet/pub" query="hl=en_US&hl=en_US&key=0AoxdCp-sqCG3dFhfSS1mWWhMVk82alV4ZGc0MjQ0Nnc&output=html&widget=true" width="437" height="302" /]
The two big things that really jump out at you are Iannetta's big drop offs in power and his wRC+. Coors is one to increase power but when he's away from Coors he's hardly above average power wise. When he's away from home he's also creating runs 19% worse then league average, Angel fans don't want to see that. Iannetta can do damage at Coors but when he's away he's just not as good.
The Angels got 21 year old Tyler Chatwood. Last year was his first taste of big league experience and he wasn't that impressive.
In 27 games last year, 25 starts, Chatwood had an unimpressive 4.89 FP and 4.90 xFIP. He doesn't strike out batters and has a problem walking them. He struck out 11.7% of the batters he faced and walked 11.2% he faced. If he wants to stay in the big leagues he needs to cut down walks by a big margin. He has the potential to be a 3 or 4 in the big leagues but it might be in Colorado's best interest to let Chatwood start the year in the minors.
In the end, both teams got what they needed. Whether it pays off or not remains to be seen though. If I had to I'd say Colorado got the better deal. They got a young pitcher with potential and signed former Reds catcher Ramon Hernandez to fill their void. I didn't talk about Hernandez but look out for a post in the near future.
Monday, August 8, 2011
What's Wrong With Carlos Gonzalez?
Last year Carlos Gonzalez had a monster season for the Colorado Rockies, posting a 6.6 WAR, .416 wOBA, 151 wRC+, 48.4 wRAA and a .241 ISO. One number that really stuck out though was his .384 BABIP which is extremely unsustainable. Now it's no secret that Coors Field is a hitters dream so let's look closer at some home and away splits and see how Gonzalez faired at Coors and away from home last year.
Coors:
BABIP: .391
HR/FB: 27.7%
ISO: .357
wRAA: 44.1
wOBA: .487
wRC+: 199
As you can see Gonzalez simply dominated Coors last year, posting a robust .487 wOBA, a .357 ISO among other numbers. At Coors, everytime Gonzalez is hitting a flyball it ends up in the seats over 25% of the time, to put it in perspective Albert Pujols had a HR/FB rate of 15% at home last year and 21.4% on the road and he's one of the best power hitters in the game. Those numbers just don't happen. I want you to take a look at his BABIP though. It's .391 which is absolutely ridiculous, no way is that sustainable through a whole season. Let's take a look at what Gonzalez did last year when he was on the road.
Away:
BABIP: .375
HR/FB: 11%
ISO: .164
wRAA: 4.5
wOBA: .339
wRC+: 100
All I can say is wow. His BABIP was still high but his other numbers were awful. His wRC+ is right at league average, his wOBA is in roughly the 65th percentile, his wRAA is slightly above average and his ISO is slightly above average as well. That HR/FB is what really surprised me though. Only 11%, last year league average was 10.6%. To simply put it, Carlos Gonzalez was average on the road last season. That just shows you how much Colorado hitters gain from playing in the mile high city. Let's take a look at Carlos Gonzalez this year.
So far he has a 2.2 WAR, .365 wOBA, 122 wRC+, 15.5 wRAA, .196 ISO and a .325 BABIP. Right off the bat his BABIP tells me he finally regressed closer to his true playing level but let's take a look at his splits and see what we can come up with.
Coors:
BABIP: .352
HR/FB: 15.9%
ISO: .234
wRAA: 17.8
wOBA: .414
wRC+: 155
Like I mentioned before it looks like Gonzalez is experiencing natural regression this year, last year's .391 BABIP has come down to .351 and has brought all of his other stats down with it. One thing I didn't post earlier is his IFFB% which is infield fly ball percentage or popouts as we call them. Last year his IFFB% at Coors was a crazy 5.3% and this year it's increased roughly 10% as it sits at 15.9% right now so that definitely hurts. On the road it's decreased about 1%, going from 13.7 to 12.9 so not much can be taken from that. I do realize Gonzalez was hurt a little this year but to me, it just seems like Gonzalez is going through natural regression at Coors. Let's see what we can get out of his away splits.
AWAY:
BABIP: .282
ISO: .143
HR/FB: 16.1
wRAA: -2.1
wOBA: .299
wRC+: 77
Wow. Gonzalez has been flat out bad on the road this year. His wOBA is about as bad as it gets. He's cost the Rockies 2.1 runs and has created 23 runs below league average. His BABIP isn't even that far below league average so that is kind of worrisome. Like I said he's been just flat out bad.
Gonzalez has been a huge disappointment this year even though he's in a very hitters friendly park in Coors Field. Will he rebound to last years' success or is this the Gonzalez we will contiue to see. I guess we'll find out next year, in the mean time he hasn't been living up to the expectations.
Coors:
BABIP: .391
HR/FB: 27.7%
ISO: .357
wRAA: 44.1
wOBA: .487
wRC+: 199
As you can see Gonzalez simply dominated Coors last year, posting a robust .487 wOBA, a .357 ISO among other numbers. At Coors, everytime Gonzalez is hitting a flyball it ends up in the seats over 25% of the time, to put it in perspective Albert Pujols had a HR/FB rate of 15% at home last year and 21.4% on the road and he's one of the best power hitters in the game. Those numbers just don't happen. I want you to take a look at his BABIP though. It's .391 which is absolutely ridiculous, no way is that sustainable through a whole season. Let's take a look at what Gonzalez did last year when he was on the road.
Away:
BABIP: .375
HR/FB: 11%
ISO: .164
wRAA: 4.5
wOBA: .339
wRC+: 100
All I can say is wow. His BABIP was still high but his other numbers were awful. His wRC+ is right at league average, his wOBA is in roughly the 65th percentile, his wRAA is slightly above average and his ISO is slightly above average as well. That HR/FB is what really surprised me though. Only 11%, last year league average was 10.6%. To simply put it, Carlos Gonzalez was average on the road last season. That just shows you how much Colorado hitters gain from playing in the mile high city. Let's take a look at Carlos Gonzalez this year.
So far he has a 2.2 WAR, .365 wOBA, 122 wRC+, 15.5 wRAA, .196 ISO and a .325 BABIP. Right off the bat his BABIP tells me he finally regressed closer to his true playing level but let's take a look at his splits and see what we can come up with.
Coors:
BABIP: .352
HR/FB: 15.9%
ISO: .234
wRAA: 17.8
wOBA: .414
wRC+: 155
Like I mentioned before it looks like Gonzalez is experiencing natural regression this year, last year's .391 BABIP has come down to .351 and has brought all of his other stats down with it. One thing I didn't post earlier is his IFFB% which is infield fly ball percentage or popouts as we call them. Last year his IFFB% at Coors was a crazy 5.3% and this year it's increased roughly 10% as it sits at 15.9% right now so that definitely hurts. On the road it's decreased about 1%, going from 13.7 to 12.9 so not much can be taken from that. I do realize Gonzalez was hurt a little this year but to me, it just seems like Gonzalez is going through natural regression at Coors. Let's see what we can get out of his away splits.
AWAY:
BABIP: .282
ISO: .143
HR/FB: 16.1
wRAA: -2.1
wOBA: .299
wRC+: 77
Wow. Gonzalez has been flat out bad on the road this year. His wOBA is about as bad as it gets. He's cost the Rockies 2.1 runs and has created 23 runs below league average. His BABIP isn't even that far below league average so that is kind of worrisome. Like I said he's been just flat out bad.
Gonzalez has been a huge disappointment this year even though he's in a very hitters friendly park in Coors Field. Will he rebound to last years' success or is this the Gonzalez we will contiue to see. I guess we'll find out next year, in the mean time he hasn't been living up to the expectations.
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