Sunday, August 26, 2012

The Red Sox New Yutes

Hey everyone this is part 2 of a 4 part series breaking down the Dodgers and Red Sox deal, for part 1 of this series check out this link.

My favorite of the bunch is Rubby De La Rosa, the kid’s arm is electric to say the least. He’s been rattled by  the injury bug and has Tommy John last year, but his ceiling is well worth the risk. He’s only 23 and had an average fastball of 96 MPH last year and in his brief return this year averaged 94.3 MPH. Before he got hurt last year he held the opposition to a 3.87 FIP and 3.55 xFIP as well as nearly struck out a better per innings, 8.9 K/9, pretty impressive considering his age. Control will make or break Rubby, despite the gaudy strikeouts his walk rate of 4.6 BB/9 last year and career 4.0 BB/9 in minors is too high to succeed at a high level.  Despite this though, his stuff is good enough to succeed and a worthwhile gamble for the Red Sox. If he continues to develop and finds consistency in his slider, curveball, and changeup he has the ceiling of an ace and the floor of a closer.

Allen Webster is the other high profile 22 year old youngster. Coming into 2012 he was ranked the 95th prospect by Baseball America and with good reason. In the minors he owns a 3.44 ERA and a 2.26 strikeout to walk ratio. Despite a minor hiccup last year when he was promoted to AA, he’s succeeded at every level thus far. His vice is also control and consistency but his should be easier to work out than Rubby's. His ceiling may not be as high as De La Rosa’s but he is the safer option of the two, ceiling of a solid #2, floor of a backend rotation starter.

Jerry Sands is another favorite of mine; I’ve been craving for the guy to be called up for the past 2 years! He’s only 24 and crushed the ball throughout his minor league career, he owns a career .965 OPS, .275 ISO, and has not had a wOBA below .370 in the minors, in other words a destroyer of minor league ballparks. However in his short stint with the Dodgers the past 2 years the results have been underwhelming many giving him the quad A label, despite this he’s put up a .701 OPS and really hurt lefties with a .906 OPS, granted these are small samples but I think they can at least give us a floor of his potential. He hasn’t had a consistent role or playing time and for a young player trying to find his groove, I think that’s vital. If the Red Sox are finally able to give him a consistent role, I think he can succeed. The power and potential are there to be a ceiling of a solid middle of the order bat, the floor a platoon guy off the bench.

Finally the last piece the Red Sox receive is Ivan DeJesus; 25 this year and has put up solid numbers in the minors.  Speed use to be one of his pluses but due to a broken leg in 09, it’s no longer much of a plus tool for him, however he still runs well, but his days of stealing bases are probably behind him. The year before the injury in 2008 he was coming off his best year in which he put up an .843 OPS, 7 HR with a .324 average, and 16 SB. Since then the results have been decent, but nothing special. He’s played mainly second base and shortstop but as of this year has been moving around a lot, 9 of his 60 games played this year have been non 2B and SS.  He makes solid contact, runs well, and plays solid defense. He still may have potential as a solid shortstop, but his floor is more likely a backup utility.

And well then there's James Loney. He's most likely a fill in for the year as his contract is up at the end of the year. You know what you're going to get from him, which isn't much but as an interim on the spot he'll do, I'd be surprised if the Red Sox bring him back and if they do to have him starting at first next year would be a bigger surprise.

All stats are from FanGraphs and Baseball Reference.

Check back in tomorrow for part 3, a break down of the center piece of the deal, Adrian Gonzalez!

I'll leave you guys with this, skip to 11:40 for the reference, but I do recommenced watching the whole thing, it's a great movie!

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