Overall, I think the Rangers will win the World Series. I believe their line-up and bullpen are better then the Cardinals. 1-9 the Rangers are deeper, the last few batters in the Cardinals line-up aren't that good and can't be counted on when it matters. Plus the Rangers have the better bench. Ogando and Feliz give the Rangers' bullpen the edge over St. Louis.
While I do think the Cardinals have the better pitching rotation I'm not sure they can keep the Rangers in check. Carpenter should do solid against the Rangers but the other three worry me.
As a team the Rangers had a 60.6 WAR, only the second team since the '98 Yankees to have a team WAR over 60 and make the World Series. When it's all said and done I think the Rangers win the series 4-1, with the Cardinals winning game one with Carpenter on the hill and then losing the second time he pitches.
Showing posts with label cardinals. Show all posts
Showing posts with label cardinals. Show all posts
Wednesday, October 19, 2011
World Series: Rotation and Bullpen
Tonight the Texas Rangers will send out C.J. Wilson to face off against Chris Carpenter of the Cardinals. Let's take a look at each team's rotation.
First off, the Texas Rangers.
1) C.J. Wilson 3.24 FIP, 22.5 K%, 8.1 BB%, .64 HR/9 5.9 WAR
This season C.J. Wilson was one of the games better pitchers. He can pile up the strikeouts, almost striking out 25% of the batters he sees. He doesn't walk much either. He also does a very good job at keeping the ball in the ballpark. His 3.24 FIP was one of the better ones in the league as well.
2) Derek Holland 3.94 FIP, 19.2 K% 8.0 BB% 1 HR/9 3.6 WAR
Holland is a solid pitcher, he's always been very good at striking people out. The thing that concerned people were the walks. His walks will probably always be high but if he can keep his strikeouts high and his FIP relatively low he should be alright.
3) Colby Lewis 4.54 FIP 20.1 K% 6.1 BB% 1.57 HR/9 2.3 WAR
Lewis is a solid pitcher, last year he was one of the games more surprising comeback stories. This year he struggled a little. His problem isn't walking to many batters, it's giving up the long ball. With Pujols, Berkman and Holliday playing for St. Louis those home runs problems probably won't get solved.
4) Matt Harrison 3.52 FIP 16.3 K% 7.4 BB% .63 HR/9 4.2 WAR
Harrison finally put together a solid season for the Rangers. There really isn't much that he did bad this season. His 3.52 FIP is solid. He's a groundball pitcher for the most part so he doesn't give up many home runs.
Bullpen:
Scott Feldman 3.99 FIP 17.1 K% 7.8 BB% .84 HR/9
Alexi Ogando 3.65 FIP 18.2 K% 6.2 BB% .85 HR/9 4.4 WAR
Mike Adams 2.47 FIP 26.7 K% 5.1 BB% .61 HR/9 1.8 WAR
Neftali Feliz 3.57 FIP 21.4 K% 11.9 BB% .58 HR/9 1 WAR
The Rangers have some really good members in their bullpen, Ogando was a starter for most of the year so that's why his numbers are so different. Adam's K% is really nice to see but Feliz's BB% is somewhat disturbing. Overall their bullpen is really solid.
Now, the St. Louis Cardinals
1) Chris Carpenter 3.06 FIP 19.2 K% 5.5 BB% .61 HR/9 5 WAR
Chris Carpenter is a stud. After being hurt the last two years have been really good, there's not much to say. He's really good.
2) Jaime Garcia 3.23 FIP 18.9 K% 6.1 BB% .69 HR/9 3.6 WAR
After coming out of nowhere last season Garcia put together another nice season. He will have a challenge versus the Rangers but he has the talent to have a good outing or two.
3) Edwin Jackson 3.55 FIP 17.2 K% 7.2 BB% .72 HR/9 3.8 WAR
He may not be the most consistent pitcher but Edwin Jackson is pretty solid. Maybe getting traded to the Cardinals and working with one of the game's best pitching coaches in Dave Duncan helped. Who knows but posted some solid numbers this season.
4) Kyle Lohse 3.67 FIP 14.3 K% 5.4 BB% .76 HR/9 2.5 WAR
Lohse is a nice pitcher in his own right. He isn't a star but he does some good things. His 3.67 FIP is solid and he doesn't give up home runs. Assuming he's the fourth pitcher in their rotation that's really good.
Bullpen:
Octavio Dotel: 3.23 FIP 28.4 K% 7.8 BB% 1 HR/9 .9 WAR
Mitchel Boggs: 3.44 FIP 18.5 K% 8.1 BB% .59 HR/9 .3 WAR
Jake Westbrook: 4.25 FIP 12.9 K% 9 BB% .79 HR/9 1.1 WAR
Fernando Salas: 3.16 FIP 25.4 K% 7.1 BB% .84 HR/9 1 WAR
Salas had a very good season, striking out over 25% of the batters he faced. Dotel has been amazing this postseason and had a good regular season. I didn't post everyone in the bullpen but they do have a solid one.
Overall, I'd take the Cardinals rotation. The deciding factor was Lohse and Lewis for me. Lohse had the better FIP and he was better overall but if the Cardinals want to win the World Series their rotation will have to do much better then they did last series.
I'd take Texas' bullpen over St. Louis because it's deeper in my opinion and has better options.
Stay tuned for my final overall evaluation!
First off, the Texas Rangers.
1) C.J. Wilson 3.24 FIP, 22.5 K%, 8.1 BB%, .64 HR/9 5.9 WAR
This season C.J. Wilson was one of the games better pitchers. He can pile up the strikeouts, almost striking out 25% of the batters he sees. He doesn't walk much either. He also does a very good job at keeping the ball in the ballpark. His 3.24 FIP was one of the better ones in the league as well.
2) Derek Holland 3.94 FIP, 19.2 K% 8.0 BB% 1 HR/9 3.6 WAR
Holland is a solid pitcher, he's always been very good at striking people out. The thing that concerned people were the walks. His walks will probably always be high but if he can keep his strikeouts high and his FIP relatively low he should be alright.
3) Colby Lewis 4.54 FIP 20.1 K% 6.1 BB% 1.57 HR/9 2.3 WAR
Lewis is a solid pitcher, last year he was one of the games more surprising comeback stories. This year he struggled a little. His problem isn't walking to many batters, it's giving up the long ball. With Pujols, Berkman and Holliday playing for St. Louis those home runs problems probably won't get solved.
4) Matt Harrison 3.52 FIP 16.3 K% 7.4 BB% .63 HR/9 4.2 WAR
Harrison finally put together a solid season for the Rangers. There really isn't much that he did bad this season. His 3.52 FIP is solid. He's a groundball pitcher for the most part so he doesn't give up many home runs.
Bullpen:
Scott Feldman 3.99 FIP 17.1 K% 7.8 BB% .84 HR/9
Alexi Ogando 3.65 FIP 18.2 K% 6.2 BB% .85 HR/9 4.4 WAR
Mike Adams 2.47 FIP 26.7 K% 5.1 BB% .61 HR/9 1.8 WAR
Neftali Feliz 3.57 FIP 21.4 K% 11.9 BB% .58 HR/9 1 WAR
The Rangers have some really good members in their bullpen, Ogando was a starter for most of the year so that's why his numbers are so different. Adam's K% is really nice to see but Feliz's BB% is somewhat disturbing. Overall their bullpen is really solid.
Now, the St. Louis Cardinals
1) Chris Carpenter 3.06 FIP 19.2 K% 5.5 BB% .61 HR/9 5 WAR
Chris Carpenter is a stud. After being hurt the last two years have been really good, there's not much to say. He's really good.
2) Jaime Garcia 3.23 FIP 18.9 K% 6.1 BB% .69 HR/9 3.6 WAR
After coming out of nowhere last season Garcia put together another nice season. He will have a challenge versus the Rangers but he has the talent to have a good outing or two.
3) Edwin Jackson 3.55 FIP 17.2 K% 7.2 BB% .72 HR/9 3.8 WAR
He may not be the most consistent pitcher but Edwin Jackson is pretty solid. Maybe getting traded to the Cardinals and working with one of the game's best pitching coaches in Dave Duncan helped. Who knows but posted some solid numbers this season.
4) Kyle Lohse 3.67 FIP 14.3 K% 5.4 BB% .76 HR/9 2.5 WAR
Lohse is a nice pitcher in his own right. He isn't a star but he does some good things. His 3.67 FIP is solid and he doesn't give up home runs. Assuming he's the fourth pitcher in their rotation that's really good.
Bullpen:
Octavio Dotel: 3.23 FIP 28.4 K% 7.8 BB% 1 HR/9 .9 WAR
Mitchel Boggs: 3.44 FIP 18.5 K% 8.1 BB% .59 HR/9 .3 WAR
Jake Westbrook: 4.25 FIP 12.9 K% 9 BB% .79 HR/9 1.1 WAR
Fernando Salas: 3.16 FIP 25.4 K% 7.1 BB% .84 HR/9 1 WAR
Salas had a very good season, striking out over 25% of the batters he faced. Dotel has been amazing this postseason and had a good regular season. I didn't post everyone in the bullpen but they do have a solid one.
Overall, I'd take the Cardinals rotation. The deciding factor was Lohse and Lewis for me. Lohse had the better FIP and he was better overall but if the Cardinals want to win the World Series their rotation will have to do much better then they did last series.
I'd take Texas' bullpen over St. Louis because it's deeper in my opinion and has better options.
Stay tuned for my final overall evaluation!
World Series: Line-ups.
Tonight at 7:05 PM central time the World Series begins. And I can't wait. Facing off in the World Series are the Texas Rangers and St. Louis Cardinals. Both top offenses in the league this year. In this article I will be comparing the two teams and giving my opinion on who I think has the better line-up. My slash lines will consist of ISO, wOBA and wRC+. I will also include WAR.
First off the Texas Rangers.
Ian Kinsler: .233/.370/128 7.7 WAR
Ian Kinsler is not your prototypical lead-off man. He hits for power which you normally don't see in a lead-off guy. He has solid speed, he stole 30 bases throughout the year. He has an above average eye at the plate, walking 12.3% of the time and striking out only 9.8% of the time. As you can see in his slash line he also gets on base an exceptional amount of the time. While he isn't what you think of when you hear lead-off hitter he's very good at what he does.
Elvis Andrus: .082/.323/96 4.5 WAR
Andrus' stats don't exactly jump out at you. He has very good speed, stealing 37 bases. His eye at the plate is above average. He walks 8.4% of the time and strikes out 11.1% of the time. Like I said, he isn't really a producer on offense, his value comes mostly from his defense but for hitting number two he does somethings well.
Josh Hamilton: .238/.371/129 4.2 WAR
What's there to say? Hamilton is a straight beast. He hits for power, he gets on base, he defends, he has a good eye. The only thing he doesn't do is run but he doesn't need to.
Michael Young: .136/.369/127 3.8 WAR
Young is one of the underrated offensive players in baseball in my mind. He isn't a star but he's one of those guys that knows how to play baseball. He doesn't strike out a lot, only 11.3% this year, has modest power, .136 and can get on base. What more can you ask for?
Adrian Beltre: .265/.379/134 5.7 WAR
So much for only performing in contract years. After signing a long term deal with the Rangers in the off-season Beltre has been wrecking the baseball. Not only does he have ridiculous power but he also has patience at the plate walking 4.8% of the time, a little low but he only struck out 10.1% of the time. Just what you want for a fifth hitter.
Mike Napoli: .312/.444/178 5.6 WAR
This year was a breakout year for Napoli for sure. He's always had good power but this year he really flashed it. He has a great eye, walking 13.4% of the time and striking out only 19.7% of the time. His OBP was a career best, .414. I bet the Angels are pretty upset that they traded him.
Nelson "Nellie" Cruz: .246/.352/116 1.6 WAR
On offense Cruz is a beast, one thing that is a problem is that he strikes out a lot, 22.6% of the time. He has power but could bring his OBP up a bit. His defense is pretty poor, hurting his WAR. This postseason he's been a beast though so don't be surprised if he moves up.
David Murphy: .196/.319/96 1.1 WAR
Murphy is pretty much the prototypical replacement player. He's an average offensive player and sub-average defensive player. He doesn't strike out and gets his share of walks. He doesn't do anything great but he's someone who can come off the bench.
Endy Chavez: .125/.325/98 1.5 WAR
Chavez, like Murphy is also a basic replacement player. He can get on much, hit for some power, play league average defense. He isn't an everyday player but someone I'd take without complaining.
Some other players to watch in the series: Mitch Moreland, Yorvit Torrealba.
Now for the home team, the St. Louis Cardinals.
Rafael Furcal: .117/.288/84 .5 WAR
Furcal has been injury plagued the last couple of seasons and has been a shell of his formal self. He's really not that good anymore.
Jon Jay: .127/.333/112 2.8 WAR
A lot of people like Jay in St. Louis. He can be a solid OF in the majors if he can keep the job. He can get on base and doesn't strike out. His defensive hasn't proven to be the best but that's a SSS. He isn't quite as good as his numbers suggest due to his .340 BABIP but he has the potential to be decent.
Albert Pujols .242/.385/148 5.1 WAR
He wasn't even completely healthy all year and he a really good. He's a machine. Need I say more?
Lance Berkman: .246/.402/159 5 WAR
Talk about a comeback year. After the end of last season everyone thought he was done. Guess we were wrong. Berkman always had a good eye at the plate and an exceptional OBP. He also has always had amazing strength, but you should know that already. With Pujols and Berkman hitting 3-4 I'd be nervous if I was Texas.
Matt Holliday:.226/.398/140 5 WAR
What's there to say? He's one of the game's better OF. He gets on base, has power, can defend, the only thing he can't do is run. With Pujols, Berkman and Holliday 3-4-5 the Rangers will have their hands full for sure.
David Freese: .144/348/122 2.7 WAR
Freese is one of those guys that can do a variety of things for your club. For a bottom of the line-up guy he can hit for some power, get on base and play league average defense. He'll never be a star but for a bottom half of the line-up guy he isn't bad.
Yadier Molina: .160/.349/123 4.1
Molina is one of the game's better catchers. While he isn't known for his offense as much as his glove he's still a very solid hitter. He does a good job at getting on base and has above average power. Most of the teams in baseball would take this guy in a heartbeat.
Nick Punto: .143/.350/123 1.8 WAR
No, Punto isn't that good of an offensive player. He only played in 66 games. If you don't already know, he's a horrible offensive player. Horrible may be an understatement. Most of his value comes from his defense. He's one of those guys that you put in during the 8th or 9th inning with a slim lead.
Allan Craig: .240/.399/158 2.6 WAR
Craig may look like he's really good, but again SSS. His .344 BABIP was also ridiculously high. He may be a solid player but I don't know enough about him. As a bench player though he looks good.
Others to watch: Skip Schumaker
I know I did not include a pitcher in the line-ups but honestly you all should know that pitchers don't do anything of significance really at the plate.
Overall I believe that Texas has the better line-up. Their 1-9 is much more balanced and they have some other bench players who are really solid. St. Louis has some really good players hitting 3-5 but again 1-9 I'd take Texas. Stay tuned for my evaluation of the pitching staffs and my overall team evaluation!
First off the Texas Rangers.
Ian Kinsler: .233/.370/128 7.7 WAR
Ian Kinsler is not your prototypical lead-off man. He hits for power which you normally don't see in a lead-off guy. He has solid speed, he stole 30 bases throughout the year. He has an above average eye at the plate, walking 12.3% of the time and striking out only 9.8% of the time. As you can see in his slash line he also gets on base an exceptional amount of the time. While he isn't what you think of when you hear lead-off hitter he's very good at what he does.
Elvis Andrus: .082/.323/96 4.5 WAR
Andrus' stats don't exactly jump out at you. He has very good speed, stealing 37 bases. His eye at the plate is above average. He walks 8.4% of the time and strikes out 11.1% of the time. Like I said, he isn't really a producer on offense, his value comes mostly from his defense but for hitting number two he does somethings well.
Josh Hamilton: .238/.371/129 4.2 WAR
What's there to say? Hamilton is a straight beast. He hits for power, he gets on base, he defends, he has a good eye. The only thing he doesn't do is run but he doesn't need to.
Michael Young: .136/.369/127 3.8 WAR
Young is one of the underrated offensive players in baseball in my mind. He isn't a star but he's one of those guys that knows how to play baseball. He doesn't strike out a lot, only 11.3% this year, has modest power, .136 and can get on base. What more can you ask for?
Adrian Beltre: .265/.379/134 5.7 WAR
So much for only performing in contract years. After signing a long term deal with the Rangers in the off-season Beltre has been wrecking the baseball. Not only does he have ridiculous power but he also has patience at the plate walking 4.8% of the time, a little low but he only struck out 10.1% of the time. Just what you want for a fifth hitter.
Mike Napoli: .312/.444/178 5.6 WAR
This year was a breakout year for Napoli for sure. He's always had good power but this year he really flashed it. He has a great eye, walking 13.4% of the time and striking out only 19.7% of the time. His OBP was a career best, .414. I bet the Angels are pretty upset that they traded him.
Nelson "Nellie" Cruz: .246/.352/116 1.6 WAR
On offense Cruz is a beast, one thing that is a problem is that he strikes out a lot, 22.6% of the time. He has power but could bring his OBP up a bit. His defense is pretty poor, hurting his WAR. This postseason he's been a beast though so don't be surprised if he moves up.
David Murphy: .196/.319/96 1.1 WAR
Murphy is pretty much the prototypical replacement player. He's an average offensive player and sub-average defensive player. He doesn't strike out and gets his share of walks. He doesn't do anything great but he's someone who can come off the bench.
Endy Chavez: .125/.325/98 1.5 WAR
Chavez, like Murphy is also a basic replacement player. He can get on much, hit for some power, play league average defense. He isn't an everyday player but someone I'd take without complaining.
Some other players to watch in the series: Mitch Moreland, Yorvit Torrealba.
Now for the home team, the St. Louis Cardinals.
Rafael Furcal: .117/.288/84 .5 WAR
Furcal has been injury plagued the last couple of seasons and has been a shell of his formal self. He's really not that good anymore.
Jon Jay: .127/.333/112 2.8 WAR
A lot of people like Jay in St. Louis. He can be a solid OF in the majors if he can keep the job. He can get on base and doesn't strike out. His defensive hasn't proven to be the best but that's a SSS. He isn't quite as good as his numbers suggest due to his .340 BABIP but he has the potential to be decent.
Albert Pujols .242/.385/148 5.1 WAR
He wasn't even completely healthy all year and he a really good. He's a machine. Need I say more?
Lance Berkman: .246/.402/159 5 WAR
Talk about a comeback year. After the end of last season everyone thought he was done. Guess we were wrong. Berkman always had a good eye at the plate and an exceptional OBP. He also has always had amazing strength, but you should know that already. With Pujols and Berkman hitting 3-4 I'd be nervous if I was Texas.
Matt Holliday:.226/.398/140 5 WAR
What's there to say? He's one of the game's better OF. He gets on base, has power, can defend, the only thing he can't do is run. With Pujols, Berkman and Holliday 3-4-5 the Rangers will have their hands full for sure.
David Freese: .144/348/122 2.7 WAR
Freese is one of those guys that can do a variety of things for your club. For a bottom of the line-up guy he can hit for some power, get on base and play league average defense. He'll never be a star but for a bottom half of the line-up guy he isn't bad.
Yadier Molina: .160/.349/123 4.1
Molina is one of the game's better catchers. While he isn't known for his offense as much as his glove he's still a very solid hitter. He does a good job at getting on base and has above average power. Most of the teams in baseball would take this guy in a heartbeat.
Nick Punto: .143/.350/123 1.8 WAR
No, Punto isn't that good of an offensive player. He only played in 66 games. If you don't already know, he's a horrible offensive player. Horrible may be an understatement. Most of his value comes from his defense. He's one of those guys that you put in during the 8th or 9th inning with a slim lead.
Allan Craig: .240/.399/158 2.6 WAR
Craig may look like he's really good, but again SSS. His .344 BABIP was also ridiculously high. He may be a solid player but I don't know enough about him. As a bench player though he looks good.
Others to watch: Skip Schumaker
I know I did not include a pitcher in the line-ups but honestly you all should know that pitchers don't do anything of significance really at the plate.
Overall I believe that Texas has the better line-up. Their 1-9 is much more balanced and they have some other bench players who are really solid. St. Louis has some really good players hitting 3-5 but again 1-9 I'd take Texas. Stay tuned for my evaluation of the pitching staffs and my overall team evaluation!
Tuesday, August 9, 2011
Jose Bautista is the Best Player in Baseball
Over the past two seasons Jose Bautista has practically taken over baseball. Last year he posted 6.9 WAR and this season he's on pace to surpass it, posting a 6.8 WAR.
Last year most of Bautista's value came from the long ball, hitting 54 home runs, 38 more then his previous career high. He had a .357 ISO, which is insane to go along with a .422 wOBA. His HR/FB% shows us that he was hitting home runs 21.7% of the time, a solid number that gives you a good testement of his power. All of those are insane numbers. The number that stud out to me though was his .233 BABIP which is significantly below league average. League average typically hovers between .295 and .300. Bautista also contributed 55.6 runs last year, which shows by looking at his wRAA. He was also worth $27.5 million dollars to the club last year, which is ridiculous. Let's see what his splits have to say about last year.
Home:
BABIP: .216
BB%: 16.4%
HR/FB%: 26.2%
ISO: .438
K%: 13.1%
wRAA: 38.9
wRC+: 196
wOBA: .465
By looking at these stats you can tell that Bautista was amazing at home, most players are since you play half the year though but still. His .438 ISO is just insane and his 26.2 HR/FB% is ridiculous as well. The Rogers Centre is known for giving up home runs but Bautista went above and beyond. He was creating runs 96% better then league average at home, a 196 wRC+ is crazy wherever you play though. By looking at his BABIP though you should be able to tell that he just ran into bad luck last year even though he had one heck of a season. Let's see how he faired on the road.
Away:
BABIP: .250
BB%: 12.9%
HR/FB%: 17.1%
ISO: .281
K%: 20.7%
wRAA: 16.7
wRC+: 138
wOBA: .381
Bautista wasn't quite as good on the road but he still put up solid numbers. His .281 ISO would still be one of the best in the league and his .381 wOBA would fall just below the 90th percentile. Not too shabby. He still created runs 38% above average and contributed 16.7. Again he had a low BABIP of .250 so he should have been even better then he was. One little cause of concern though was the increase in strikeouts on the road but he was so good it didn't even matter.
You can see why pitchers feared Bautista, he has insane power and seems to create runs at will. One of the main reasons for his huge turn around is hs new swing, it's much better then that ippercut last year. How does he compare this year? To be blunt, he's miles upon miles better.
Home:
BABIP: .336
BB%: 20.5%
HR/FB%: 27.1%
ISO: .369
K%: 16%
wRAA: 27.3
wRC+: 217
wOBA: .489
I don't think you can get much better then this. His BABIP is slightly high but he has a ridiculous .369 ISO, .489 wOBA and a 217 wRC+! I know I mentioned the effect the Rogres Centre has but those numbers are just sick. He's hitting home runs at an unprecedented rate, 27.1% of the time and walking 20.5% of the time. I guess you can say pitchers have learned their lesson. The 27.7 runs he's contributed to hasn't been to shabby either. To reiterate what I said earlier, Bautista has just been on a tear this season and I don't see him slowing down.
Away:
BABIP: .289
BB%: 18.4
HR/FB%: 21%
ISO: .302
K%: 14.8%
wRAA: 23.1
wRC+: 176
wOBA: .430
Bautista has been excellent on the road this year as well. His .430 wOBA and .302 ISO are both well above average and pitchers fear him on the road just as much as at home as his 18.4 BB% indicates. Bautista's 176 wRC+ is excellent and a solid increase above his road wRC+ of 138 last year. Bautista has just been an all around stud this year. The main point of the article was to prove how Bautista has been the best player in the game the last two seasons so let's see how he stacks up against the player most have been considering the best the past decade in Albert Pujols.
I realize Pujols has missed time this season and started off slow but he's rebounded quite nicely.
Pujols 2010:
BABIP: .297
BB%: 14.7%
HR/FB%: 18.3%
ISO: .284
K%: 10.9%
WAR: 7.5
wRAA: 55.4
wRC+: 165
wOBA: .420
Bautista and Pujols were pretty much even last year, both posting solid numbers across the board, I would still give the edge to Bautista even though Pujols had a higher WAR because he posted excellent numbers but was still affected by an absurdly low BABIP, Pujols' had a BABIP of .297 so he was right at his true playing level.
Pujols 2011:
BABIP: .254
BB%: 8.7%
HR/FB%: 19.1%
ISO: .255
K%: 8.7%
WAR: 3.5
wRAA: 23.3
wRC+: 144
wOBA: .382
One look at Pujols' stats and you think obviously Bautista is better but Pujols' started off really slow and missed time to do injury. Pujols isn't having a horrible season at all. His BABIP indicates he should see an increase in his stats. He has a solid wRC+, his ISO is good and he could still amass a 5 WAR.
Bautista was rewarded with a 5 year $65 million dollar contract last off-season, so far he has earned $30.8 million dollars based on his play this year, the Blue Jays should easily get way more value then they are paying Bautista making that deal a steal. Based on all the facts, Jose Bautista is the best player in baseball and if he keeps it up he could reach 35 career WAR which would be crazy based on him being a late bloomer.
Last year most of Bautista's value came from the long ball, hitting 54 home runs, 38 more then his previous career high. He had a .357 ISO, which is insane to go along with a .422 wOBA. His HR/FB% shows us that he was hitting home runs 21.7% of the time, a solid number that gives you a good testement of his power. All of those are insane numbers. The number that stud out to me though was his .233 BABIP which is significantly below league average. League average typically hovers between .295 and .300. Bautista also contributed 55.6 runs last year, which shows by looking at his wRAA. He was also worth $27.5 million dollars to the club last year, which is ridiculous. Let's see what his splits have to say about last year.
Home:
BABIP: .216
BB%: 16.4%
HR/FB%: 26.2%
ISO: .438
K%: 13.1%
wRAA: 38.9
wRC+: 196
wOBA: .465
By looking at these stats you can tell that Bautista was amazing at home, most players are since you play half the year though but still. His .438 ISO is just insane and his 26.2 HR/FB% is ridiculous as well. The Rogers Centre is known for giving up home runs but Bautista went above and beyond. He was creating runs 96% better then league average at home, a 196 wRC+ is crazy wherever you play though. By looking at his BABIP though you should be able to tell that he just ran into bad luck last year even though he had one heck of a season. Let's see how he faired on the road.
Away:
BABIP: .250
BB%: 12.9%
HR/FB%: 17.1%
ISO: .281
K%: 20.7%
wRAA: 16.7
wRC+: 138
wOBA: .381
Bautista wasn't quite as good on the road but he still put up solid numbers. His .281 ISO would still be one of the best in the league and his .381 wOBA would fall just below the 90th percentile. Not too shabby. He still created runs 38% above average and contributed 16.7. Again he had a low BABIP of .250 so he should have been even better then he was. One little cause of concern though was the increase in strikeouts on the road but he was so good it didn't even matter.
You can see why pitchers feared Bautista, he has insane power and seems to create runs at will. One of the main reasons for his huge turn around is hs new swing, it's much better then that ippercut last year. How does he compare this year? To be blunt, he's miles upon miles better.
Home:
BABIP: .336
BB%: 20.5%
HR/FB%: 27.1%
ISO: .369
K%: 16%
wRAA: 27.3
wRC+: 217
wOBA: .489
I don't think you can get much better then this. His BABIP is slightly high but he has a ridiculous .369 ISO, .489 wOBA and a 217 wRC+! I know I mentioned the effect the Rogres Centre has but those numbers are just sick. He's hitting home runs at an unprecedented rate, 27.1% of the time and walking 20.5% of the time. I guess you can say pitchers have learned their lesson. The 27.7 runs he's contributed to hasn't been to shabby either. To reiterate what I said earlier, Bautista has just been on a tear this season and I don't see him slowing down.
Away:
BABIP: .289
BB%: 18.4
HR/FB%: 21%
ISO: .302
K%: 14.8%
wRAA: 23.1
wRC+: 176
wOBA: .430
Bautista has been excellent on the road this year as well. His .430 wOBA and .302 ISO are both well above average and pitchers fear him on the road just as much as at home as his 18.4 BB% indicates. Bautista's 176 wRC+ is excellent and a solid increase above his road wRC+ of 138 last year. Bautista has just been an all around stud this year. The main point of the article was to prove how Bautista has been the best player in the game the last two seasons so let's see how he stacks up against the player most have been considering the best the past decade in Albert Pujols.
I realize Pujols has missed time this season and started off slow but he's rebounded quite nicely.
Pujols 2010:
BABIP: .297
BB%: 14.7%
HR/FB%: 18.3%
ISO: .284
K%: 10.9%
WAR: 7.5
wRAA: 55.4
wRC+: 165
wOBA: .420
Bautista and Pujols were pretty much even last year, both posting solid numbers across the board, I would still give the edge to Bautista even though Pujols had a higher WAR because he posted excellent numbers but was still affected by an absurdly low BABIP, Pujols' had a BABIP of .297 so he was right at his true playing level.
Pujols 2011:
BABIP: .254
BB%: 8.7%
HR/FB%: 19.1%
ISO: .255
K%: 8.7%
WAR: 3.5
wRAA: 23.3
wRC+: 144
wOBA: .382
One look at Pujols' stats and you think obviously Bautista is better but Pujols' started off really slow and missed time to do injury. Pujols isn't having a horrible season at all. His BABIP indicates he should see an increase in his stats. He has a solid wRC+, his ISO is good and he could still amass a 5 WAR.
Bautista was rewarded with a 5 year $65 million dollar contract last off-season, so far he has earned $30.8 million dollars based on his play this year, the Blue Jays should easily get way more value then they are paying Bautista making that deal a steal. Based on all the facts, Jose Bautista is the best player in baseball and if he keeps it up he could reach 35 career WAR which would be crazy based on him being a late bloomer.
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