The Texas Rangers came within one strike of winning their first world series two times. Going into free agency they don't need to do a lot if they want to get back. Two things they could improve on though are starting pitching and first base.
Starting Pitching:
The Rangers had four really good starting pitchers this season. They were C.J. Wilson, Matt Harrison, Alexi Ogando and Derek Holland. Combined all four pitchers posted 17.3 WAR. The problem is Alexi Ogando probably won't be that good next season and C.J. Wilson may not even be on the team. Wilson has stated that he would like to return to the Rangers but who knows if that will turn out if the Yankees start throwing cash at him. If he leaves the Rangers wouldn't have a ton of options.
They could look at Roy Oswalt but he's stated in the past that he's a National League guy. Or they could look at Japanese-Iranian sensation Yu Darvish. Darvish is a 25-year-old pitcher who pitches for the Japanese team Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters. Darvish is 6'5" and weighs 220 lbs, he can easily put on some pounds. Darvish throws five pitches. He has a 4 seam fastball that is usually between 91-94 mph but can top out at 97 mph. He has a slurve, two seam, cutter, curve, splitter and a change-up as well. In his six year career Darvish has 974 strike outs and 247 walks. For what it's worth he's had an ERA under 2 for the last four seasons. He'll be expensive as well and the Rangers have money to spend. Check out this article by Dave Cameron of Fangraphs about how much Darvish should get paid. After those two there aren't really ace like pitchers on the market and that's what Texas would need if they lost Wilson. They could also ask Tampa Bay about Shields but he would come at a cost.
First Base:
Texas also could use a first basemen going into next year. Mitch Moreland showed he has power potential (.155 ISO) But his .317 wOBA is dreadful. There just happens to be two very good fist basemen on the market this season. I don't think they'll sign Albert Pujols but I do believe they have a legitmate shot at Prince Fielder. With Adrian Beltre, Nelson Cruz, Michael Young and Mike Napoli all right handed Prince Fielder could slide right in with Josh Hamilton and supply power from the left side. The past 6 years Fielder has totaled 23.4 WAR but one year he only had 62 PA with .1 WAR and the other two he had a combied 3 WAR. This past season he posted 5.5 WAR which was his second highest in his career. His highest was in 2009 when he posted 6.4 WAR. If Fielder posted 5.5 WAR, 6 WAR, 5.5 WAR, 5 WAR, 4.5 WAR over the next five years he'd be worth he would be worth $106 million dollars in value. If the Rangers could get him for 5 years $100 million they'd have themselves a nice deal. At 28 years old Fielder still is well in his prime and should still put up huge numbers. It would probably cost the Rangers 5-6 years at a little over $130 million dollars though.
Overall the Rangers are a really good team and don't have to make a ton of changes. I fthey could get C.J. Wilson back and sign Fielder they'd be right in the mix for a third world series appearance.
Showing posts with label rangers. Show all posts
Showing posts with label rangers. Show all posts
Tuesday, November 1, 2011
Wednesday, October 19, 2011
World Series: Final Evaluation
Overall, I think the Rangers will win the World Series. I believe their line-up and bullpen are better then the Cardinals. 1-9 the Rangers are deeper, the last few batters in the Cardinals line-up aren't that good and can't be counted on when it matters. Plus the Rangers have the better bench. Ogando and Feliz give the Rangers' bullpen the edge over St. Louis.
While I do think the Cardinals have the better pitching rotation I'm not sure they can keep the Rangers in check. Carpenter should do solid against the Rangers but the other three worry me.
As a team the Rangers had a 60.6 WAR, only the second team since the '98 Yankees to have a team WAR over 60 and make the World Series. When it's all said and done I think the Rangers win the series 4-1, with the Cardinals winning game one with Carpenter on the hill and then losing the second time he pitches.
While I do think the Cardinals have the better pitching rotation I'm not sure they can keep the Rangers in check. Carpenter should do solid against the Rangers but the other three worry me.
As a team the Rangers had a 60.6 WAR, only the second team since the '98 Yankees to have a team WAR over 60 and make the World Series. When it's all said and done I think the Rangers win the series 4-1, with the Cardinals winning game one with Carpenter on the hill and then losing the second time he pitches.
World Series: Rotation and Bullpen
Tonight the Texas Rangers will send out C.J. Wilson to face off against Chris Carpenter of the Cardinals. Let's take a look at each team's rotation.
First off, the Texas Rangers.
1) C.J. Wilson 3.24 FIP, 22.5 K%, 8.1 BB%, .64 HR/9 5.9 WAR
This season C.J. Wilson was one of the games better pitchers. He can pile up the strikeouts, almost striking out 25% of the batters he sees. He doesn't walk much either. He also does a very good job at keeping the ball in the ballpark. His 3.24 FIP was one of the better ones in the league as well.
2) Derek Holland 3.94 FIP, 19.2 K% 8.0 BB% 1 HR/9 3.6 WAR
Holland is a solid pitcher, he's always been very good at striking people out. The thing that concerned people were the walks. His walks will probably always be high but if he can keep his strikeouts high and his FIP relatively low he should be alright.
3) Colby Lewis 4.54 FIP 20.1 K% 6.1 BB% 1.57 HR/9 2.3 WAR
Lewis is a solid pitcher, last year he was one of the games more surprising comeback stories. This year he struggled a little. His problem isn't walking to many batters, it's giving up the long ball. With Pujols, Berkman and Holliday playing for St. Louis those home runs problems probably won't get solved.
4) Matt Harrison 3.52 FIP 16.3 K% 7.4 BB% .63 HR/9 4.2 WAR
Harrison finally put together a solid season for the Rangers. There really isn't much that he did bad this season. His 3.52 FIP is solid. He's a groundball pitcher for the most part so he doesn't give up many home runs.
Bullpen:
Scott Feldman 3.99 FIP 17.1 K% 7.8 BB% .84 HR/9
Alexi Ogando 3.65 FIP 18.2 K% 6.2 BB% .85 HR/9 4.4 WAR
Mike Adams 2.47 FIP 26.7 K% 5.1 BB% .61 HR/9 1.8 WAR
Neftali Feliz 3.57 FIP 21.4 K% 11.9 BB% .58 HR/9 1 WAR
The Rangers have some really good members in their bullpen, Ogando was a starter for most of the year so that's why his numbers are so different. Adam's K% is really nice to see but Feliz's BB% is somewhat disturbing. Overall their bullpen is really solid.
Now, the St. Louis Cardinals
1) Chris Carpenter 3.06 FIP 19.2 K% 5.5 BB% .61 HR/9 5 WAR
Chris Carpenter is a stud. After being hurt the last two years have been really good, there's not much to say. He's really good.
2) Jaime Garcia 3.23 FIP 18.9 K% 6.1 BB% .69 HR/9 3.6 WAR
After coming out of nowhere last season Garcia put together another nice season. He will have a challenge versus the Rangers but he has the talent to have a good outing or two.
3) Edwin Jackson 3.55 FIP 17.2 K% 7.2 BB% .72 HR/9 3.8 WAR
He may not be the most consistent pitcher but Edwin Jackson is pretty solid. Maybe getting traded to the Cardinals and working with one of the game's best pitching coaches in Dave Duncan helped. Who knows but posted some solid numbers this season.
4) Kyle Lohse 3.67 FIP 14.3 K% 5.4 BB% .76 HR/9 2.5 WAR
Lohse is a nice pitcher in his own right. He isn't a star but he does some good things. His 3.67 FIP is solid and he doesn't give up home runs. Assuming he's the fourth pitcher in their rotation that's really good.
Bullpen:
Octavio Dotel: 3.23 FIP 28.4 K% 7.8 BB% 1 HR/9 .9 WAR
Mitchel Boggs: 3.44 FIP 18.5 K% 8.1 BB% .59 HR/9 .3 WAR
Jake Westbrook: 4.25 FIP 12.9 K% 9 BB% .79 HR/9 1.1 WAR
Fernando Salas: 3.16 FIP 25.4 K% 7.1 BB% .84 HR/9 1 WAR
Salas had a very good season, striking out over 25% of the batters he faced. Dotel has been amazing this postseason and had a good regular season. I didn't post everyone in the bullpen but they do have a solid one.
Overall, I'd take the Cardinals rotation. The deciding factor was Lohse and Lewis for me. Lohse had the better FIP and he was better overall but if the Cardinals want to win the World Series their rotation will have to do much better then they did last series.
I'd take Texas' bullpen over St. Louis because it's deeper in my opinion and has better options.
Stay tuned for my final overall evaluation!
First off, the Texas Rangers.
1) C.J. Wilson 3.24 FIP, 22.5 K%, 8.1 BB%, .64 HR/9 5.9 WAR
This season C.J. Wilson was one of the games better pitchers. He can pile up the strikeouts, almost striking out 25% of the batters he sees. He doesn't walk much either. He also does a very good job at keeping the ball in the ballpark. His 3.24 FIP was one of the better ones in the league as well.
2) Derek Holland 3.94 FIP, 19.2 K% 8.0 BB% 1 HR/9 3.6 WAR
Holland is a solid pitcher, he's always been very good at striking people out. The thing that concerned people were the walks. His walks will probably always be high but if he can keep his strikeouts high and his FIP relatively low he should be alright.
3) Colby Lewis 4.54 FIP 20.1 K% 6.1 BB% 1.57 HR/9 2.3 WAR
Lewis is a solid pitcher, last year he was one of the games more surprising comeback stories. This year he struggled a little. His problem isn't walking to many batters, it's giving up the long ball. With Pujols, Berkman and Holliday playing for St. Louis those home runs problems probably won't get solved.
4) Matt Harrison 3.52 FIP 16.3 K% 7.4 BB% .63 HR/9 4.2 WAR
Harrison finally put together a solid season for the Rangers. There really isn't much that he did bad this season. His 3.52 FIP is solid. He's a groundball pitcher for the most part so he doesn't give up many home runs.
Bullpen:
Scott Feldman 3.99 FIP 17.1 K% 7.8 BB% .84 HR/9
Alexi Ogando 3.65 FIP 18.2 K% 6.2 BB% .85 HR/9 4.4 WAR
Mike Adams 2.47 FIP 26.7 K% 5.1 BB% .61 HR/9 1.8 WAR
Neftali Feliz 3.57 FIP 21.4 K% 11.9 BB% .58 HR/9 1 WAR
The Rangers have some really good members in their bullpen, Ogando was a starter for most of the year so that's why his numbers are so different. Adam's K% is really nice to see but Feliz's BB% is somewhat disturbing. Overall their bullpen is really solid.
Now, the St. Louis Cardinals
1) Chris Carpenter 3.06 FIP 19.2 K% 5.5 BB% .61 HR/9 5 WAR
Chris Carpenter is a stud. After being hurt the last two years have been really good, there's not much to say. He's really good.
2) Jaime Garcia 3.23 FIP 18.9 K% 6.1 BB% .69 HR/9 3.6 WAR
After coming out of nowhere last season Garcia put together another nice season. He will have a challenge versus the Rangers but he has the talent to have a good outing or two.
3) Edwin Jackson 3.55 FIP 17.2 K% 7.2 BB% .72 HR/9 3.8 WAR
He may not be the most consistent pitcher but Edwin Jackson is pretty solid. Maybe getting traded to the Cardinals and working with one of the game's best pitching coaches in Dave Duncan helped. Who knows but posted some solid numbers this season.
4) Kyle Lohse 3.67 FIP 14.3 K% 5.4 BB% .76 HR/9 2.5 WAR
Lohse is a nice pitcher in his own right. He isn't a star but he does some good things. His 3.67 FIP is solid and he doesn't give up home runs. Assuming he's the fourth pitcher in their rotation that's really good.
Bullpen:
Octavio Dotel: 3.23 FIP 28.4 K% 7.8 BB% 1 HR/9 .9 WAR
Mitchel Boggs: 3.44 FIP 18.5 K% 8.1 BB% .59 HR/9 .3 WAR
Jake Westbrook: 4.25 FIP 12.9 K% 9 BB% .79 HR/9 1.1 WAR
Fernando Salas: 3.16 FIP 25.4 K% 7.1 BB% .84 HR/9 1 WAR
Salas had a very good season, striking out over 25% of the batters he faced. Dotel has been amazing this postseason and had a good regular season. I didn't post everyone in the bullpen but they do have a solid one.
Overall, I'd take the Cardinals rotation. The deciding factor was Lohse and Lewis for me. Lohse had the better FIP and he was better overall but if the Cardinals want to win the World Series their rotation will have to do much better then they did last series.
I'd take Texas' bullpen over St. Louis because it's deeper in my opinion and has better options.
Stay tuned for my final overall evaluation!
World Series: Line-ups.
Tonight at 7:05 PM central time the World Series begins. And I can't wait. Facing off in the World Series are the Texas Rangers and St. Louis Cardinals. Both top offenses in the league this year. In this article I will be comparing the two teams and giving my opinion on who I think has the better line-up. My slash lines will consist of ISO, wOBA and wRC+. I will also include WAR.
First off the Texas Rangers.
Ian Kinsler: .233/.370/128 7.7 WAR
Ian Kinsler is not your prototypical lead-off man. He hits for power which you normally don't see in a lead-off guy. He has solid speed, he stole 30 bases throughout the year. He has an above average eye at the plate, walking 12.3% of the time and striking out only 9.8% of the time. As you can see in his slash line he also gets on base an exceptional amount of the time. While he isn't what you think of when you hear lead-off hitter he's very good at what he does.
Elvis Andrus: .082/.323/96 4.5 WAR
Andrus' stats don't exactly jump out at you. He has very good speed, stealing 37 bases. His eye at the plate is above average. He walks 8.4% of the time and strikes out 11.1% of the time. Like I said, he isn't really a producer on offense, his value comes mostly from his defense but for hitting number two he does somethings well.
Josh Hamilton: .238/.371/129 4.2 WAR
What's there to say? Hamilton is a straight beast. He hits for power, he gets on base, he defends, he has a good eye. The only thing he doesn't do is run but he doesn't need to.
Michael Young: .136/.369/127 3.8 WAR
Young is one of the underrated offensive players in baseball in my mind. He isn't a star but he's one of those guys that knows how to play baseball. He doesn't strike out a lot, only 11.3% this year, has modest power, .136 and can get on base. What more can you ask for?
Adrian Beltre: .265/.379/134 5.7 WAR
So much for only performing in contract years. After signing a long term deal with the Rangers in the off-season Beltre has been wrecking the baseball. Not only does he have ridiculous power but he also has patience at the plate walking 4.8% of the time, a little low but he only struck out 10.1% of the time. Just what you want for a fifth hitter.
Mike Napoli: .312/.444/178 5.6 WAR
This year was a breakout year for Napoli for sure. He's always had good power but this year he really flashed it. He has a great eye, walking 13.4% of the time and striking out only 19.7% of the time. His OBP was a career best, .414. I bet the Angels are pretty upset that they traded him.
Nelson "Nellie" Cruz: .246/.352/116 1.6 WAR
On offense Cruz is a beast, one thing that is a problem is that he strikes out a lot, 22.6% of the time. He has power but could bring his OBP up a bit. His defense is pretty poor, hurting his WAR. This postseason he's been a beast though so don't be surprised if he moves up.
David Murphy: .196/.319/96 1.1 WAR
Murphy is pretty much the prototypical replacement player. He's an average offensive player and sub-average defensive player. He doesn't strike out and gets his share of walks. He doesn't do anything great but he's someone who can come off the bench.
Endy Chavez: .125/.325/98 1.5 WAR
Chavez, like Murphy is also a basic replacement player. He can get on much, hit for some power, play league average defense. He isn't an everyday player but someone I'd take without complaining.
Some other players to watch in the series: Mitch Moreland, Yorvit Torrealba.
Now for the home team, the St. Louis Cardinals.
Rafael Furcal: .117/.288/84 .5 WAR
Furcal has been injury plagued the last couple of seasons and has been a shell of his formal self. He's really not that good anymore.
Jon Jay: .127/.333/112 2.8 WAR
A lot of people like Jay in St. Louis. He can be a solid OF in the majors if he can keep the job. He can get on base and doesn't strike out. His defensive hasn't proven to be the best but that's a SSS. He isn't quite as good as his numbers suggest due to his .340 BABIP but he has the potential to be decent.
Albert Pujols .242/.385/148 5.1 WAR
He wasn't even completely healthy all year and he a really good. He's a machine. Need I say more?
Lance Berkman: .246/.402/159 5 WAR
Talk about a comeback year. After the end of last season everyone thought he was done. Guess we were wrong. Berkman always had a good eye at the plate and an exceptional OBP. He also has always had amazing strength, but you should know that already. With Pujols and Berkman hitting 3-4 I'd be nervous if I was Texas.
Matt Holliday:.226/.398/140 5 WAR
What's there to say? He's one of the game's better OF. He gets on base, has power, can defend, the only thing he can't do is run. With Pujols, Berkman and Holliday 3-4-5 the Rangers will have their hands full for sure.
David Freese: .144/348/122 2.7 WAR
Freese is one of those guys that can do a variety of things for your club. For a bottom of the line-up guy he can hit for some power, get on base and play league average defense. He'll never be a star but for a bottom half of the line-up guy he isn't bad.
Yadier Molina: .160/.349/123 4.1
Molina is one of the game's better catchers. While he isn't known for his offense as much as his glove he's still a very solid hitter. He does a good job at getting on base and has above average power. Most of the teams in baseball would take this guy in a heartbeat.
Nick Punto: .143/.350/123 1.8 WAR
No, Punto isn't that good of an offensive player. He only played in 66 games. If you don't already know, he's a horrible offensive player. Horrible may be an understatement. Most of his value comes from his defense. He's one of those guys that you put in during the 8th or 9th inning with a slim lead.
Allan Craig: .240/.399/158 2.6 WAR
Craig may look like he's really good, but again SSS. His .344 BABIP was also ridiculously high. He may be a solid player but I don't know enough about him. As a bench player though he looks good.
Others to watch: Skip Schumaker
I know I did not include a pitcher in the line-ups but honestly you all should know that pitchers don't do anything of significance really at the plate.
Overall I believe that Texas has the better line-up. Their 1-9 is much more balanced and they have some other bench players who are really solid. St. Louis has some really good players hitting 3-5 but again 1-9 I'd take Texas. Stay tuned for my evaluation of the pitching staffs and my overall team evaluation!
First off the Texas Rangers.
Ian Kinsler: .233/.370/128 7.7 WAR
Ian Kinsler is not your prototypical lead-off man. He hits for power which you normally don't see in a lead-off guy. He has solid speed, he stole 30 bases throughout the year. He has an above average eye at the plate, walking 12.3% of the time and striking out only 9.8% of the time. As you can see in his slash line he also gets on base an exceptional amount of the time. While he isn't what you think of when you hear lead-off hitter he's very good at what he does.
Elvis Andrus: .082/.323/96 4.5 WAR
Andrus' stats don't exactly jump out at you. He has very good speed, stealing 37 bases. His eye at the plate is above average. He walks 8.4% of the time and strikes out 11.1% of the time. Like I said, he isn't really a producer on offense, his value comes mostly from his defense but for hitting number two he does somethings well.
Josh Hamilton: .238/.371/129 4.2 WAR
What's there to say? Hamilton is a straight beast. He hits for power, he gets on base, he defends, he has a good eye. The only thing he doesn't do is run but he doesn't need to.
Michael Young: .136/.369/127 3.8 WAR
Young is one of the underrated offensive players in baseball in my mind. He isn't a star but he's one of those guys that knows how to play baseball. He doesn't strike out a lot, only 11.3% this year, has modest power, .136 and can get on base. What more can you ask for?
Adrian Beltre: .265/.379/134 5.7 WAR
So much for only performing in contract years. After signing a long term deal with the Rangers in the off-season Beltre has been wrecking the baseball. Not only does he have ridiculous power but he also has patience at the plate walking 4.8% of the time, a little low but he only struck out 10.1% of the time. Just what you want for a fifth hitter.
Mike Napoli: .312/.444/178 5.6 WAR
This year was a breakout year for Napoli for sure. He's always had good power but this year he really flashed it. He has a great eye, walking 13.4% of the time and striking out only 19.7% of the time. His OBP was a career best, .414. I bet the Angels are pretty upset that they traded him.
Nelson "Nellie" Cruz: .246/.352/116 1.6 WAR
On offense Cruz is a beast, one thing that is a problem is that he strikes out a lot, 22.6% of the time. He has power but could bring his OBP up a bit. His defense is pretty poor, hurting his WAR. This postseason he's been a beast though so don't be surprised if he moves up.
David Murphy: .196/.319/96 1.1 WAR
Murphy is pretty much the prototypical replacement player. He's an average offensive player and sub-average defensive player. He doesn't strike out and gets his share of walks. He doesn't do anything great but he's someone who can come off the bench.
Endy Chavez: .125/.325/98 1.5 WAR
Chavez, like Murphy is also a basic replacement player. He can get on much, hit for some power, play league average defense. He isn't an everyday player but someone I'd take without complaining.
Some other players to watch in the series: Mitch Moreland, Yorvit Torrealba.
Now for the home team, the St. Louis Cardinals.
Rafael Furcal: .117/.288/84 .5 WAR
Furcal has been injury plagued the last couple of seasons and has been a shell of his formal self. He's really not that good anymore.
Jon Jay: .127/.333/112 2.8 WAR
A lot of people like Jay in St. Louis. He can be a solid OF in the majors if he can keep the job. He can get on base and doesn't strike out. His defensive hasn't proven to be the best but that's a SSS. He isn't quite as good as his numbers suggest due to his .340 BABIP but he has the potential to be decent.
Albert Pujols .242/.385/148 5.1 WAR
He wasn't even completely healthy all year and he a really good. He's a machine. Need I say more?
Lance Berkman: .246/.402/159 5 WAR
Talk about a comeback year. After the end of last season everyone thought he was done. Guess we were wrong. Berkman always had a good eye at the plate and an exceptional OBP. He also has always had amazing strength, but you should know that already. With Pujols and Berkman hitting 3-4 I'd be nervous if I was Texas.
Matt Holliday:.226/.398/140 5 WAR
What's there to say? He's one of the game's better OF. He gets on base, has power, can defend, the only thing he can't do is run. With Pujols, Berkman and Holliday 3-4-5 the Rangers will have their hands full for sure.
David Freese: .144/348/122 2.7 WAR
Freese is one of those guys that can do a variety of things for your club. For a bottom of the line-up guy he can hit for some power, get on base and play league average defense. He'll never be a star but for a bottom half of the line-up guy he isn't bad.
Yadier Molina: .160/.349/123 4.1
Molina is one of the game's better catchers. While he isn't known for his offense as much as his glove he's still a very solid hitter. He does a good job at getting on base and has above average power. Most of the teams in baseball would take this guy in a heartbeat.
Nick Punto: .143/.350/123 1.8 WAR
No, Punto isn't that good of an offensive player. He only played in 66 games. If you don't already know, he's a horrible offensive player. Horrible may be an understatement. Most of his value comes from his defense. He's one of those guys that you put in during the 8th or 9th inning with a slim lead.
Allan Craig: .240/.399/158 2.6 WAR
Craig may look like he's really good, but again SSS. His .344 BABIP was also ridiculously high. He may be a solid player but I don't know enough about him. As a bench player though he looks good.
Others to watch: Skip Schumaker
I know I did not include a pitcher in the line-ups but honestly you all should know that pitchers don't do anything of significance really at the plate.
Overall I believe that Texas has the better line-up. Their 1-9 is much more balanced and they have some other bench players who are really solid. St. Louis has some really good players hitting 3-5 but again 1-9 I'd take Texas. Stay tuned for my evaluation of the pitching staffs and my overall team evaluation!
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)